Brent crude oil has not exceeded the $100 per barrel threshold, despite the new disruptions caused by the war between the United States and Iran. However, this does not mean that diesel will become cheaper.
Global diesel supply could remain constrained until winter, at a time when stocks are already low, and refineries cannot increase production sufficiently, according to two analyses published on Tuesday by Reuters.
This situation is significant for Romania, where diesel already costs over 10 lei per liter. At Petrom stations, it had reached 10.19 lei/liter by the end of the past week, and at OMV stations, it was at 10.25 lei/liter.
Why Oil Hasn't Surpassed $100
Oil deliveries from Middle Eastern producers have dropped to around 11 million barrels per day, down from 18 million before the start of the war with Iran seven months ago, according to Argus cited by Reuters.
Nevertheless, a significant amount of oil continues to flow through the Strait of Hormuz. Flows have dropped to below two million barrels per day after the resumption of hostilities, but the daily average still stands between four and five million barrels.
At this level, a price of around $95 for a barrel of Brent crude oil can be considered justified, according to Claudio Galimberti, chief economist at Rystad Energy.
Gulf producers have found alternative routes. Some shipments are transferred from one vessel to another outside the Strait of Hormuz, and exports through the Egyptian port of Sidi Kerir exceeded two million barrels per day in August, more than double the volume in June.
Iraq's exports returned to around 2.34 million barrels per day in August. The United Arab Emirates exported approximately 2.9 million barrels per day, and Kuwait's exports rose again to around one million barrels per day.
Non-OPEC Production Fills the Gap
The United States, Canada, and Guyana are expected to collectively increase their production by 1.4 million barrels per day this year. This growth covers some of the shortfall in Middle Eastern oil.
Russian exports have remained relatively high, at around 5.5 million barrels per day in July and August. Russia has been able to export more crude oil as Ukrainian attacks have reduced the activity of its refineries and, consequently, the amount processed domestically.
This situation helps the crude oil market but accentuates the issue of refined fuels: Russia can send abroad the oil it can no longer process, but its diesel supply decreases.
China Buys Less and Uses Reserves
Another reason oil has not surpassed $100 is the reduction in demand. Global oil consumption is estimated to have dropped by approximately 3.5 million barrels per day in the third quarter compared to levels in the absence of high prices and supply issues. More than half of this reduction comes from China.
The electrification of transportation and the use of coal in the chemical industry have reduced China's need for oil. The country's maritime imports have dropped to around seven million barrels per day in July and August, down from over 11 million in February.
Beijing also holds reserves estimated at 1.17 billion barrels, allowing it to postpone some purchases and alleviate market concerns.
Diesel Faces a Different Issue
The crude oil situation does not entirely reflect what is happening in the fuel market. For oil to become gasoline or diesel, it must be processed in refineries, where supply is much more limited.
The conflicts in Ukraine and Iran have impacted refineries in Russia and the Middle East. Additionally, Russia has banned diesel exports, and demand for distilled fuels is expected to rise as winter approaches.
Around two million barrels per day of petroleum products are missing from the global market from Russia and nearly two million from the Middle East, stated Russell Hardy, CEO of energy trading company Vitol, at the APPEC conference in Singapore, one of the main events for the oil market in the Asia-Pacific region.
The Middle East currently exports around nine million barrels of crude oil per day, but only one million barrels of refined products. "There is simply a shortage of products," explained Hardy, according to Reuters.
Existing refineries do not produce enough to halt the consumption of previously accumulated stocks. According to Vitol's CEO, the market is nearing the lower limit of these reserves.
The United States also has limited room for production growth. Most American refineries are already operating at full capacity, stated Mark Senn, Vice President of Global Transactions at Phillips 66.
Under these conditions, diesel enters the cold season with low stocks, and price pressure could persist.
Why It Matters for Romania
Diesel is the primary fuel used in Romania. Prime Minister Ilie Bolojan stated in March that it accounts for over 70% of the country's fuel consumption.
Romania consumes more diesel than it produces. Energy Minister Bogdan Ivan stated in April that annual production is around 5.5 million tons, while consumption approaches seven million tons. The difference is covered through imports.
These figures do not imply Romania is heading towards a shortage. The country has domestic production, refineries, stocks, and diversified import routes. However, global imbalances could still exert pressure on pump prices.
Moreover, the diesel price is not solely determined by oil prices. Refining costs, product availability, transport, exchange rates, and taxes also matter. Therefore, keeping a barrel of oil below $100 does not automatically lead to cheaper diesel.
High prices and limited supply are already starting to reduce demand. Vitol estimates that global oil consumption in 2026 will be around 1.5 million barrels per day lower than in 2025.
The pressure has not vanished from the oil market either. Morgan Stanley forecasts an average price of $100 per barrel for Brent in the final quarter of the year, while Goldman Sachs has raised its projections, assuming that disruptions in Middle Eastern transport will persist into 2027.