American intelligence services have reportedly warned several European governments that Russia is considering a drone attack against Spain, France, or Italy.
According to information published by the Spanish newspaper El Mundo, it is about a possible scenario, not an announced attack or an operation with known date and target. The publication cites sources close to the Lithuanian Ministry of Defense and individuals familiar with the content of the warning transmitted in Europe.
According to the sources cited by El Mundo, the drones could be transported on ships and launched from the sea. The publication illustrates, through graphics, how such an operation could unfold and which areas would be within the drone's range of action. However, the positions of the ships and flight directions depicted on the map are purely illustrative.
According to the publication, Lithuanian authorities have information that Russia could use Gerbera drones, relatively small devices also used in the war in Ukraine.
What a Gerbera drone could do
The device has a wingspan of approximately 2.5 meters, can reach around 160 km/h, and has a declared range of action of up to 600 kilometers, as shown by the publication. However, the actual distance it can cover depends on the payload and flight conditions.
For example, a drone launched from 200-300 kilometers off the shore would need, at the maximum speed indicated by the publication, about an hour and a quarter to two hours to reach the coast. The actual time would depend on the flight speed and conditions. The explosive payload described in the article, around four to five kilograms, is small compared to that of other attack drones. However, it could still cause a fire, damage equipment outdoors, or lead to the temporary closure of a port or airport.
Such an operation could cause limited damage but disrupt the activity of a port or airport and demonstrate that Russia can target objectives far from the front line. Keir Giles, a specialist in Russian military strategy, says that distance does not guarantee a country's safety: "Not necessarily the frontline countries will be targeted. The target will be where Europe's weakest point is," he told El Mundo.
The connection made with the visit of the CIA chief to Moscow
According to the Spanish newspaper, the warning reached European governments after the visit made to Moscow on August 25 by CIA Director John Ratcliffe. The Wall Street Journal separately reported that he went to warn Russia not to attack a NATO state. The visit took place, but the exact content of the discussions was not made public.
El Mundo writes that Spain, France, and Italy have also been informed about the possibility of a drone operation against one of them. Several defense analysts consulted by the publication say they are aware of a CIA report that circulated among European governments. The newspaper does not publish the document.
El Mundo links the warning to the meetings convened by Emmanuel Macron: on September 16, the French president convened the Defense Council, and two days later, he called on the party leaders and candidates for the 2027 presidential elections to Élysée. The publication writes that French authorities give a lot of credibility to the report discussed by the analysts.
Why a sea-based attack is being considered
The possibility of launching drones from ships was also discussed by the Ukrainian publication Defense Express. A commercial ship could transport multiple devices, and a Gerbera drone is easier to launch than larger Russian models. El Mundo, however, presents this method as the scenario described by its sources, not as an operation observed in progress in the Mediterranean.
Giles says that Russia is looking for the place where an action would have the greatest impact. "Russia is looking for where any action would have the most impact, due to the lack of resilience, civilian defense, and political fragility," the analyst states. According to him, the choice of target depends on the outcome that Moscow believes it can achieve in relation to the risks and resources it is willing to assume.
G.P.