The political system in Romania has undergone several unusual electoral changes in the past six months, and the developments recorded by the main parties could provide clues about the configuration of the political competition at the local and parliamentary elections in 2028.
Sociologist Remus Ștefureac analyzes these changes and draws attention to the fluctuations in support for PNL, PSD, AUR, and USR, as well as to the possibility of an alliance emerging between the liberals and USR or of a new party forming.
In an analysis published in the context of preparations for the pre-electoral year 2027, Ștefureac shows that the last few months have brought significant changes in voting intentions, against the backdrop of the fall of the Bolojan Government, the interim period, and PSD's return to government.
PNL gained 6% after the fall of the Bolojan Government but subsequently lost the lead
According to the sociologist, one of the most unusual developments was that of PNL, which gained approximately 6% in a single month after the motion of no confidence submitted by PSD and AUR, following which the pro-European government led by Ilie Bolojan was removed.
Thus, in May 2026, the liberals had reached a voting intention of 20-22%, a record level for the party in that context.
However, the increase did not hold during the five months of interim government, a period in which PNL gradually lost the support gained and returned, in November, to the level recorded in April.
Remus Ștefureac considers that the liberals still have the possibility to grow in Opposition, around Ilie Bolojan, whom he says has maintained a coherent profile and a reasonable level of trust.
PSD recovered after the losses caused by the motion of no confidence
In the case of PSD, the evolution was almost the opposite. The party lost 3-4% after the motion of no confidence, reaching in May 2026 the lowest level ever recorded in INSCOP surveys.
The five months that followed, during which the social democrats were in Opposition while the government was ensured by PNL, USR, and UDMR, allowed them to almost fully recover the losses.
Subsequently, taking over the government brought PSD a new increase of approximately 4-5%. In November 2026, the party thus reached a voting intention of 22-24%.
The sociologist also considers the possibility that the social democrats could quickly lose support, given that they will have to manage a difficult government alone, during a period marked by economic problems and the approach of the winter season.
However, there is another scenario: PSD could stabilize its electoral score if it manages to adopt at least one important reform or significantly reduce waste in public spending.
AUR dropped below the 35% threshold for the first time
After approximately 18 months of relatively constant electoral support of 38-40%, AUR recorded a more pronounced decline in November 2026.
The formation reached 34-35%, losing approximately 4-5%. Remus Ștefureac appreciates that some of these voters could be former PSD voters who returned, at least temporarily, to the social democrats after the party's return to government.
It remains to be seen whether this decline represents the beginning of a lasting trend or just a momentary fluctuation, similar to those recorded by other political formations.
USR returned to 12-13% after refusing to support the new Government
USR also recorded changes in voting intention during the period analyzed. After the motion of no confidence, the party lost about three percentage points, reaching 9% in May 2026.
This level was maintained during the five months of interim government. However, in November, after the formation of the PSD Government and USR's decision not to vote for the new Executive, the formation quickly regained lost ground, returning to 12-13%.
The PNL-USR alliance, tested for the first time, would obtain 32%
One of the options analyzed for the future electoral competition is the formation of an alliance between PNL and USR.
Tested for the first time in November 2026, this hypothesis obtained a voting intention of 32% among mobilized voters, just three percentage points below the score recorded by AUR.
Remus Ștefureac considers that such a political project could become a reference point for the 2028 elections if it is realized.
However, the sociologist draws attention to several conditions, including overcoming tensions between the two parties and building a political identity credible enough to attract even more moderate AUR voters.
Half of Romanians would vote for a new party
Another conclusion of the analysis concerns the electorate's willingness to support a new political formation. According to Ștefureac, half of Romania's population declares that they would vote for a newly established party.
Although there is room for the emergence of such a formation and possible leaders who could contribute to such a project, its actual launch represents a challenge. The sociologist mentions Victor Ponta, who has consistently maintained a trust level above 20%, as well as formations like SENS, which are approaching the electoral threshold.
In Remus Ștefureac's opinion, however, the time remaining until the 2028 elections is very short for parties or leaders who want to enter the political competition or consolidate their position.
The sociologist's analysis thus captures an electoral landscape in continuous change, where developments in 2027, the first pre-electoral year, will contribute to shaping alliances and the balance of power for the local and parliamentary elections in 2028.