Negotiations for the formation of a new government are unfolding chaotically, without any clear direction from the PSD, the key party regarding the resolution of the political crisis, at least for now.
Statements by Sorin Grindeanu, as well as other social-democratic leaders, cover a wide spectrum, from tough positions, „we will not vote for the government,” to absurd demands, „Siegfried Mureșan to resign from the European Parliament,” to jests, „your tongue gets tangled when you pronounce his name,” an observation made by Lia Olguța Vasilescu regarding the first name of the designated prime minister.
The inconsistency, disorder, and negativity manifested by the PSD actually indicate a strong crisis within the party, one of leadership.
Sorin Grindeanu lacks the authority and strength to shape a decision in the Political Bureau, while Olguța Vasilescu and Claudiu Manda, the informal leaders of the party, have a simplistic mindset, without nuances, based on personal objectives, namely maintaining control over Craiova, where Olguța Vasilescu is mayor, and ensuring a position of influence within the party through her husband, a Member of the European Parliament.
But the simplistic thinking of the "couple from Craiova," as their former party colleague Constantin Toma called them, the mayor of Buzău, requires the PSD to quickly associate with AUR, form a parliamentary majority, and return to the "old way of doing business," namely massive diversion of public funds, directing them to mayors and party-affiliated companies, making promises without backing them up with salary increases in the public sector, pensions, and supporting the judiciary mafia that offers protection in exchange for shielding against possible corruption charges.
Patriotic alternative excludes PSD
Lia Olguța Vasilescu is a person who does not get lost in details, being convinced that "thieves understand each other" as long as there is something to steal.
She sees AUR as a kind of Greater Romania, the party that launched her into politics, being supported by Corneliu Vadim Tudor.
I don't know how many remember, but Olguța Vasilescu was the Minister of Labor during the Dragnea era and, at his request, she drafted a "unitary salary law," which turned out to be a resounding failure.
She promised salary increases, but in the end created confusion, inequality, and anger among public sector employees.
"Of course, I did not start from the idea of reducing any public sector salary, but in order to respect the 1 to 12 ratio, which is a fair ratio and in line with the laws of other countries in the European Union, salary adjustments were necessary both for those exceeding the president's salary and for certain categories of officials that were double what the grid established for 2022 allowed," said Lia Olguța Vasilescu in 2017.
Sorin Grindeanu, although he understands the serious situation the party he leads is in, does not have the power to oppose the Vasilescu-Manda axis, supported by the most influential local barons, led by Paul Stănescu.
But the pressure to join forces with AUR creates a dependency of the PSD on George Simion's party, which is anything but a unified and coherent political bloc.
First and foremost, the AUR leader is caught in a web of thousands of guiding threads, pulled by masters of power from both within the country and abroad, shadowy wielders of influence.
AUR, by controlling a third of the Romanian electorate, has become too important to be destroyed. Those lurking behind Simion want to use the party's strength for political and business negotiations.
But that's precisely why Simion is weak. He must reconcile conflicting tendencies within the party, satisfy key individuals, and ensure the party does not dissolve.
This is why AUR cannot officially associate with the PSD. It would validate the way politics has been conducted in Romania over the past three decades, contradicting the party's main message that it represents a patriotic alternative to the current state of affairs.
Message from Nicușor Dan to Sorin Grindeanu
Sorin Grindeanu has no guarantee that a PSD-AUR government will be voted in Parliament. Likewise, in terms of a minority government, the only way to return to power or revolve around it is exclusively through pro-European votes in Parliament.
"I want a pro-Western government and a pro-Western majority to support a pro-Western government. It might be a negotiating tactic... In any case, (a PSD-AUR majority - editor's note) is not a direction I want us to take," stated President Nicușor Dan.
The latest stance of the head of state is actually a message to the PSD, indicating that it would be wise to negotiate what has been designated, as a new designation will by no means solve the internal problems of the social democrats but rather exacerbate everyone's problems.
Somewhat, in the discourse of politicians and commentators, an idea has been created, seemingly more from the comfort zone, an attempt at self-convincing, that the president will make a new designation if Siegfried Mureșan does not pass through Parliament, and this will be a final act that will end the crisis.
But such a position is not based on anything concrete, but only on a narrow interpretation offered by the constitutional text, which, rather, will become fuel for crisis, in no way the water that extinguishes the fire.
The President, if Siegfried Mureșan is rejected by Parliament, enters a legal gray area, being accused of violating the Constitution if he does not dissolve Parliament.
He stated that he does not want this, but it no longer depends solely on him, but also on the other political actors who can bring charges against him.
George Simion and AUR are eagerly waiting to launch a campaign to brand the president as a "criminal" for being outside the provisions of the Constitution.
"Nicușor Dan qualifies elections as bad for citizens. Nicușor Dan ordered the handcuffs put on Călin Georgescu. Nicușor Dan must be suspended!" announced the leader of AUR, on Thursday, through a message published on social media.
At that moment, extremists will have and support the most powerful political theme, capturing the attention of public opinion. Thus, the PSD becomes even weaker, caught between the extremist and pro-European poles.
The Power that the President No Longer Has
Even if he wanted to, Nicușor Dan, in the position of a president who violated the Constitution, can no longer save the PSD through a new designation.
Either way, he cannot appoint Grindeanu or another PSD leader without causing chaos in the country, both economically and politically.
Therefore, the offer made by UDMR to rebuild the coalition of four pro-European parties, with the PSD taking over the government next year, is an option that the social democrats cannot ignore.
"I am open, of course, in the coming days I will not be. I have a schedule that you know. I will not be in Bucharest, but my colleagues will be. If there is a desire to discuss the government program, not what we saw yesterday, of course, we are available..." stated Sorin Grindeanu on Thursday, September 24, signaling a flexibility in the PSD's position.
In real terms, neither the president nor the parties have any room for maneuver. In the event that the Siegfried Mureșan government does not pass through Parliament, two major events, which no one desires, snap elections and the suspension of the president, will be difficult to avoid.
Exiting, even with nuances, from the framework outlined by the Constitution means moving towards a political confrontation where the president no longer has arguments provided by the fundamental law he violated, and the parties have exhausted their collaboration resources.
"If Siegfried Mureșan and the team he will propose do not pass the will of a parliamentary majority, snap elections cannot be avoided anymore," wrote Professor Radu Carp on his Facebook page.
"Indeed, the president 'can' dissolve the chambers, but not dissolving them after the rejection of two investiture proposals means being in total disagreement with the way the Constitution was drafted," he added.
"The Constitution did not intend to give the President of Romania too much power, but neither too little. Thus, the president cannot dissolve Parliament at any time, only in expressly provided circumstances. Interpreting the phrase 'can' as meaning making a third nomination would mean giving the president more powers, powers he does not have," explained Professor Radu Carp.