The National Institute of Statistics brings bad news for Romania today: the economy has decreased and remains in recession, while inflation has increased and is approaching 11%.
Romania’s economy declined in the first quarter of this year, both compared to the end of last year and to the same quarter in 2025.
According to the National Institute of Statistics, GDP dropped in the first quarter of this year by -0.2% compared to the last quarter of last year.
Compared to the same quarter in 2025, Romania’s economy decreased by 1.5%.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has reduced its estimates for the growth of the Romanian economy this year to 0.7%, down from the 1.4% forecasted in October, as shown in the latest „World Economic Outlook” (WEO) report published by the international financial institution.
Additionally, the IMF expects a GDP growth of 2.5% in 2027.
### Inflation, approaching 11%
Furthermore, the annual inflation rate increased in April 2026 to 10.7%, according to data from the National Institute of Statistics.
In March 2026, it was 9.87%, and in February, 9.3%.
The increase was caused not by rising fuel or food prices, but by a major and unexpected surge in rents, up by +33% in a single month, as reported by Biziday.
According to INS, food prices rose in April compared to the previous month, with food up by +0.5%, non-food items by +0.4% (gasoline decreased by -1.2%, while diesel increased by +2.3%).
**Services significantly influenced inflation.** Besides rents, airline tickets also saw a significant tariff increase of +27%, but this is not uncommon during the Easter holidays.
### What has increased the most in a year
Compared to April 2025, the highest price increases in April 2026 were recorded in services, 13.04%.
During the same period, prices of non-food items increased by 12.02%, and those of food items by 7.39%.
For **food items**, the highest price increases were seen in:
– coffee: 21.76%
– eggs: 14.78%
– beef: 12.24%
– fresh fruits: 11.77%
– cow’s milk: 10.97%
For **non-food items**, the highest price increases were in:
– electricity: 54.18%
– diesel: 32.68%
– gasoline: 22.42%
– thermal energy: 10.7%
– books, newspapers, magazines: 10.37%
– detergents: 9.45%
– tobacco and cigarettes: 7.42%
– medicines: 4.37%
– gas: 6.38%
For **services**, the highest price increases were recorded in:
– rents: 43.78%
– hygiene and cosmetics: 15.07%
– water, sewage, and sanitation: 15.05%
– auto repair services: 14.65%
– medical assistance: 12.61%
After an inflation rate of 7.3% last year, the IMF expects inflation to reach 7.8% this year, up from the 6.7% level forecasted in October.
Next year, the inflation rate is expected to drop to 3.9%, according to the most recent „World Economic Outlook” (WEO) report published by the international financial institution.
### The outlook for the coming months is not encouraging
BNR Vice-Governor Cosmin Marinescu stated on Tuesday that April will bring a new inflation surge, exceeding 10%, affecting consumption that has already been compressed since February, with retail sales down by 6.8% compared to last year.
„In Romania, despite the deficit phase of demand in the economy, the price increase in energy has led to inflation exceeding expectations in March, reaching almost 10%. The main cause was the rise in fuel prices by around 13%, and **April will bring a new inflation surge, exceeding 10%.** Inflation affects already compressed consumption: since February, retail sales have been down by 6.8% compared to last year,” Marinescu said.
The BNR Vice-Governor emphasized that the outlook for the coming months is not encouraging.
„The outlook for the coming months is not encouraging, with the traffic of oil tankers in the Persian Gulf still blocked. If the tension persists, high energy prices could, through second-round effects, force the persistence of ‘Ormuz inflation’ for several quarters,” Cosmin Marinescu stated.