Senior European officials fear that Russia may be preparing an attack on NATO in the next 12 months to cover the unfavorable developments in the war in Ukraine.
There are no indications that Russia will actually move troops or equipment to organize attacks on the Baltic states or elsewhere outside Ukraine in the near future, say officials from intelligence and military services in several European countries. However, they mention that Vladimir Putin will face a difficult choice in the coming months due to the simple arithmetic of war weariness, according to the Wall Street Journal.
Russian forces are losing nearly 35,000 soldiers per month, according to Western intelligence estimates, more than the Kremlin can recruit.
Continuing the war in Ukraine at the current pace will soon become unsustainable without resorting to mandatory mobilization - something Russia has not done since the recruitment campaign of 300,000 soldiers in September 2022.
This move would have huge implications inside and outside Russia.
The Kremlin Cannot Be Satisfied with the Current Progress of the War
A new mobilization would signal that Moscow can no longer sustain the war with its current forces and may be preparing for further escalation, said Kaja Kallas, the head of European diplomacy, to the American daily.
"So, the point is coming where they need to escalate to justify the mobilization. And this is a very dangerous point. Of course, no one sees what's in Putin's mind, but this could be the calculus to move forward and change the linearity of this war," she said.
"Russia cannot afford to continue the war on the current trajectory, as it will face the trap of diminishing resources," said Oleksandr V. Danilyuk, president of the Center for Defense Reforms in Kiev and former Ukrainian defense and information official. "This means that Putin will have to escalate. He can do this vertically, by increasing the intensity of violence, including through nuclear blackmail, but without any actual use of nuclear weapons. And he can do it horizontally, by expanding the geography of the conflict while trying to freeze the war under better conditions."
Russia has already conducted nuclear forces exercises that included deploying nuclear warheads in Belarus this month. Moscow has also warned that Kyiv will face a wave of "systemic" heavy bombardments, such as the wave of missile and drone attacks over the past weekend, urging foreign embassies and citizens to evacuate the capital.
Russia Will Not Stop on Its Own
The current stalemate on the front lines is largely due to Ukraine's - and Russia's - progress in the drone war. What was once a front line is now a vast "killing zone," tens of kilometers wide, where any movement is usually quickly detected, and advancing troops are killed long before reaching enemy positions.
Ukraine's increasing advantage in long-range drones, powered by Starlink, means that Kyiv can also target moving trucks and fuel and ammunition depots over 160 kilometers behind Russian lines, severely disrupting the enemy's logistics.
Putin continues to insist that victory is near. "The situation on the front lines for the Ukrainian armed forces is gradually changing from difficult and critical to catastrophic," he said earlier this month, urging Ukrainian forces not to obey the "illegitimate and thieving junta" in Kyiv.
There is no sign that Putin's strategic goal - dominating the entire Ukraine and reshaping the power balance in Europe - has been narrowed, despite Moscow's challenges on the front lines, as noted by WSJ.
"Russia can change its tactics, but it has not changed its strategy and objectives and will not stop on its own. Its imperialist and revanchist aspirations remain," said Mariana Beta, Ukraine's Deputy Foreign Minister.
Why Europe Needs to Be on Guard
In Russia's official discourse, relatively conciliatory towards the US since Trump's election, the EU - now providing most of the support to Ukraine - appears as the implacable enemy that must be punished or destroyed.
"Russia clearly sees the European Union as a threat to its governance system based on oppression and fear," said Michael McGrath, EU Commissioner for Democracy, Justice, and the Rule of Law, in an interview. "Ultimately, their goal is to destroy the European Union. And we should not have illusions about this because they do not want a large, strong, and united democratic bloc at their doorstep."
In recent military exercises, Ukrainian drone teams quickly defeated much larger units of NATO forces. The issue is that Russian troops possess comparable drone experience and equipment - and would likely fare much better against European armies than against Ukraine, especially if the US does not rush to help.
Putin Has Proven to Be Unpredictable
To engage in such an escalation, Russia would first need to replenish its armed forces.
"Mobilization, technically, is absolutely feasible; their mobilization system has been remedied. But this would also create serious internal problems and pressures, which could then lead in interesting different directions. It would be a risky decision for Putin," said Kaupo Rosin, Director of the Estonian Foreign Intelligence Service.
"Issues within Russia are starting to accumulate: lack of success on the front lines, financial situation, and strong blows from Ukraine affecting the economy, but also the people," he added.
Attacking NATO would be a serious mistake, emphasizes Pål Jonson, Swedish Minister of Defense. "We are very determined to keep every inch of the allies' territory safe," he said.
The idea of breaking the deadlock in Ukraine by expanding the war to the Baltic countries could be tempting - but dangerous - for Putin, said Norbert Röttgen, a senior German parliamentarian. "It would be such a high and additional risk for Putin, after not having enough success against Ukraine, to simply add another very powerful adversary in a military conflict," he explained.
On the other hand, Putin is, however, known for taking great risks. "Despite my doubts, we must also consider the fact that Putin behaves irrationally and in an escalating manner," said the German parliamentarian.
T.D.