The annual inflation rate decreased to 8.16% in July, from 10.42% in June, according to data published on Wednesday by the National Institute of Statistics (INS).
Thus, the annual inflation decreased by 2.2 percentage points for the first time in the last 12 months.
Compared to June, food prices decreased by 0.3%, while non-food goods prices increased by almost 1%, similar to what happened with services.
Compared to July 2025, services have become more expensive by 13.67%, non-food goods by 7.93%, and food goods by 5.03%.
Regarding food goods, the highest price increases were recorded for coffee and eggs. For non-food goods, the highest price increases were for diesel and gasoline, while in the services category, rent experienced the highest price increases.
Here is the price evolution over the past year:
Food goods:
- Coffee +19.5%
- Eggs +14%
- Milk +9.4%
- Bread +8%
- Beer +7.9%
- Fresh fish +7.5%
- Oil +6.6%
- Meat +6%
- Cheese +5.1%
- Potatoes -13.7%
- Fruits -13.8%
Non-food goods:
- Diesel +30.7%
- Gasoline +23.2%
- Books +10.8%
- Thermal energy +10.7%
- Detergents +9.9%
- Cigarettes +8.5%
- Clothing +6.5%
- Footwear +5.8%
- Furniture +5.3%
- Electricity +3.4%
Services:
- Rent +42.5%
- Water, sewerage, sanitation +16%
- TV subscription +14.1%
- Railway transport +11.4%
- Restaurants, cafes +10.8%
- Urban transport +7.5%
- Phone subscription +6.7%
- Airplane tickets +2.3%
BNR Estimates
BNR estimates that the annual inflation rate will experience a significant decrease in the third quarter of 2026, and then gradually decrease in 2027, possibly re-entering the central bank's target range by the end of next year.
"According to the forecast, the annual inflation rate will undergo a substantial downward correction in the third quarter of 2026, as previously anticipated, due to the exhaustion of the direct effects of eliminating the electricity price cap and increasing VAT rates and excise duties," announced BNR on Monday.
Additionally, after a slightly fluctuating trend in the fourth quarter of 2026, it is expected to gradually decrease, re-entering the target range by the end of 2027, under the impact of disinflationary base effects associated with recent price increases driven by the energy shock, as well as in the conditions of intensifying disinflationary pressures from fundamental factors, especially those related to the aggregate demand deficit.
It will then continue to deepen in the near future, dropping to lower values than previously anticipated – in the context of budget correction, but also the global energy crisis – and will subsequently narrow gradually.
BNR indicates that significant uncertainties and risks arise from the future evolution of electricity and food prices, due to this year's severe drought, as well as from the trajectory of oil prices, with implications for the quotations of other raw materials and international prices of intermediate and final goods.
Major uncertainties remain associated, including in the current internal political situation, with potential measures to be adopted in the future to continue budget consolidation beyond the current year corresponding to the Medium-Term Budgetary-Structural Plan agreed with the EC and the excessive deficit procedure.