The conflict with Iran has demonstrated that a principle of the American military is no longer valid, calling into question the foundation on which the United States’ military strategy has long been based.
After World War II, the U.S. developed an extensive network that includes 750 bases in 80 countries and territories. When a conflict looms – as was the case with Iraq in 1991 or 2003 – the U.S. amasses „mountains of iron” ammunition in nearby bases before launching offensive operations. The premise has always been that American air superiority would ensure the protection of these bases.
During the conflicts in Iraq and Afghanistan, American bases remained relatively secure, even in areas dominated by insurgents. However, the ongoing conflict with Iran has shown that this assumption is no longer valid, thus casting doubt on the principle that has long underpinned U.S. military strategy, as highlighted in an analysis published by The Washington Post.
Iran Dictated the Course of the War
Iran used drones and missiles to inflict major losses on American bases in the Persian Gulf region. As highlighted in a recent report by the Department of Defense Inspector General, Iranian strikes damaged and destroyed hundreds of buildings and structures in American bases located in Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Oman, and Jordan throughout the conflict. Additionally, dozens of American aircraft were destroyed or damaged.
The damage was particularly severe at Naval Support Activity Bahrain - the headquarters of the Fifth Fleet - which was rendered inoperative on February 28, the first day of the fighting. The U.S. Navy was thus forced to rely solely on its base in Diego Garcia - located 3,520 kilometers away - to supply the fleet in the Middle East.
This situation led to increased costs and decreased frequency of naval resupply, making port visits far too perilous to consider. The USS Abraham Lincoln aircraft carrier endured nine grueling months at sea, and tensions ran so high that eight crew members attempted suicide.
Under these circumstances, one can imagine what China, with far more drones and missiles than Iran, could do to American bases in Japan, South Korea, Australia, the Philippines, Guam, and even Hawaii. If most of these bases were rendered inoperative, even temporarily, the U.S.'s ability to defend Taiwan would be paralyzed, as emphasized by the American daily.
What the U.S. Should Do
The increasing vulnerability of American bases, caused by the proliferation of cheap drones and missiles, does not have a simple solution, and the situation will worsen with the spread of artificial intelligence-based guidance systems.
Closing the bases could prevent them from becoming targets, but it would have a negative political effect, signaling a U.S. retreat.
American bases play a crucial role, warning adversaries that an attack on a U.S. ally would inevitably entail an attack on American troops. Therefore, Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping are eagerly waiting - they would very much like to see American bases near their countries closed.
Another solution would be for the U.S. not to rebuild all bases in the Persian Gulf, but a problem arises: it is important to strengthen the defense measures of bases worldwide. This means building a greater number of bunkers and shelters for troops, aircraft, and supplies.
A study by the Hudson Institute showed that, starting in the early 2010s, China built over 3,000 aircraft shelters - both fortified and non-fortified - while the U.S. built only 43 such shelters within a 1,000 nautical mile radius of Taiwan (excluding South Korea).
However, the funds needed to fortify bases are being absorbed by the costly and futile war with Iran (with a total cost of $43.6 billion, a figure that is continuously rising), writes The Washington Post.
Active defense systems are also crucial, especially cost-effective ones against drones. These were lacking in the Middle East, forcing the U.S. and allies to resort to expensive guided missiles to shoot down cheap drones.
In response to a recent Iranian attack on an American air base in Jordan, U.S. forces launched between 60 and 70 Patriot missiles and over a dozen THAAD interceptors. Such massive use of limited air defense munitions amplifies U.S. vulnerabilities to potential adversaries like China, Russia, and North Korea, while leaving Ukraine exposed to Russian attacks on its cities.
Expanding the U.S. drone inventory is also crucial, especially those with long-range capabilities that do not require launching from bases near the target. The advantage of drones is that they do not need food or water, thus eliminating the need to stockpile huge quantities of supplies at forward bases.
The Most Important Change
Above all, the U.S. military needs a radical shift in mindset: it can no longer expect to operate from invulnerable bases near the front lines, writes the American newspaper.
However, it is hard to imagine that the armed forces can focus on such a major strategic realignment while grappling with the destabilizing political purges by Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, and his retrograde demands regarding increasing testosterone levels.
Many of the elite officers dismissed by Hegseth without valid reasons are precisely those needed by the armed forces to adapt to the massive changes in the American way of waging war, driven by the drone revolution, as emphasized in the cited analysis.
T.D.