The first day of the 10 available to Luca Niculescu, the prime minister designated by Nicușor Dan to form a new government, indicates the possibility of passing with the votes of UDMR, PSD, PNL, and deputies from the minority group.
There are two obstacles in the way of forming a majority in Parliament – the conditions set by PSD and the attempt by the liberal putschists to isolate Ilie Bolojan.
It is now clear that Sorin Grindeanu had expectations of being appointed. In a press conference held after the meeting of the PSD leadership, the party leader acknowledged this, announcing a great dissatisfaction among the social democrats that they are not allowed to form the government.
"All colleagues expressed their revolt, disappointment that the president, instead of entrusting the mandate of prime minister to PSD, continued to conduct political experiments," stated Sorin Grindeanu.
At least for now, this revolt is being held in check because PSD is awaiting the first contact with Luca Niculescu to clarify what it can achieve.
According to political sources, they have a good chance of obtaining a large part of what they desire.
Also, Rareș Bogdan, a liberal MEP who is leading a crusade within the party against Ilie Bolojan, announced that PNL must vote for the new government. The scheme of the putschists represented by the former TV star is based on creating a movement within the party to isolate the current prime minister, paving the way for a new collaboration between social democrats and liberals.
Alone against all
The great test for Ilie Bolojan, in the event of the investiture of the Government led by Luca Niculescu, is the challenge of becoming a true leader of the Opposition, rallying the energy of liberal and progressive movements in the country.
He will face huge forces - Nicușor Dan, the head of the system, as he considers himself, the prosecutors, largely controlled by PSD and the president, as well as the judges, aligned behind Lia Savonea.
How he will navigate through this labyrinth of obstacles and succeed in inspiring an electorate affected by economic stagnation, inflation, and soaring fuel prices remains to be seen.
The greatest chance will be offered by the Government of Luca Niculescu itself, one that is weak, lacking authority, pressured by Sorin Grindeanu on one side and maneuvered by Nicușor Dan on the other, limited in terms of budgetary spending and dependent on funds from the European Union.
The threat of early elections should be viewed with caution when it comes from PSD. A current of opinion within the party has not yet formed for such an option, but there is a nucleus within the party, around Lia Olguța Vasilescu, which sees the salvation of the social democrats through collaboration with AUR.
In such a situation, early elections could represent an opportunity to achieve such a pre- or post-electoral agreement aimed at gaining control of Parliament.
The thinking is simplistic, but so are many politicians, cynical and pragmatic. If PSD gets, in the case of parliamentary elections, 15-17%, and AUR - 40%, as they are currently rated in polls, then the two formations together obtain over 60% of the seats in Parliament after redistribution.
After three decades, consensus has returned
But the reckoning at home does not always match that in the market.
Although the ministers are not yet known and the type of government is unknown, whether technocratic, political, or a mix, those who can derail the negotiations and parliamentary support are the social democrats themselves, although they also have little room for maneuver.
Anyway, no one should expect this executive, if it passes through Parliament, to last long. At the first major obstacle, it will be dismissed by the parliamentarians who will try to find a scapegoat.
There have been many references to the Government led by Luca Niculescu as one that will resemble the one led by Dacian Cioloș. Most likely, the latter will be weaker, more fragile than the one from 2016, which Dragnea intimidated to such an extent that, at the end of the day, he won the parliamentary elections.
"There is something else that the OECD accession process has shown us," announced Luca Niculescu in a message posted on social media, he who coordinated the OECD dossier.
"Political parties have managed to support an important objective for Romania together, beyond their natural differences. This consensus mattered enormously. I hope we find the same openness now, around a realistic program, built on what unites us. I am open to discussions and respect good ideas, regardless of where they come from," stated the designated prime minister.
Luca Niculescu's announcement marks the starting point for negotiations in the coming days with the parties and calls for consensus, a topic that President Nicușor Dan also spoke about in recent days.
Most likely, it will lead to a weak government, a lightning rod for all popular grievances that cannot be resolved by political leaders.
The Government led by Luca Niculescu will be the way out for PSD to escape the responsibility of throwing Romania into crisis through reckless spending and misappropriation of public funds.