Most Romanians would vote against the dismissal of President Nicușor Dan, but the difference compared to those who would support such a referendum remains relatively close.
According to the latest Barometru Informat.ro – INSCOP Research, 50.7% of respondents say they would vote against dismissal, while 44% would support the removal of the head of state. The rest either do not know or do not respond.
The survey was conducted through telephone interviews (CATI) on a sample of 1,100 people. The margin of error is ±3%, with a confidence level of 95%, and the difference between the two sides is close to the statistical margin limit.
If undecided voters are excluded, it turns out that 53.5% of Romanians would vote against the dismissal of Nicușor Dan, while 46.5% would support dismissal.
INSCOP Research Director, Remus Ștefureac, says that the idea of a referendum for the dismissal of the president does not have majority support in society, not even in a hypothetical scenario.
"The dismissal of President Nicușor Dan through a possible referendum does not have support in Romanian society, not even following the application of a question testing a hypothetical situation," Ștefureac stated.
He argues that the proximity to the tense electoral cycle of 2024-2025 and the fear of political instability influence the population's responses.
"The proximity to the 2025 electoral moment and the systemic risks perceived by the majority of voters, in the context of the tense electoral period of 2024-2025, fuel the public's hostility towards a referendum for the president's dismissal, which would only amplify the already huge and costly political uncertainties from an economic and social perspective," stated the INSCOP director.
Ștefureac also says that, despite political polarization, a potential suspension of the president tends to reactivate the electoral divides from the second round of the presidential elections.
The AUR Electorate Strongly Supports Dismissal
The survey data show strong differences between the parties' electorates and various social categories.
Thus, the most favorable to the idea of dismissing the president are the voters of the Alliance for the Union of Romanians, of whom 77% say they would vote to suspend Nicușor Dan.
Above the national average are also individuals with primary education (63%), residents of rural areas (55%), and TikTok users (59%).
On the other hand, opposition to dismissal is dominant among the voters of the National Liberal Party and the Save Romania Union, with 86% of respondents saying they would vote against such a referendum.
The electorate of the Social Democratic Party also predominantly positions itself against dismissal, at a rate of 59%.
According to the research, support for keeping Nicușor Dan at Cotroceni is higher among individuals over 60 years old (59%), those with higher education (73%), residents of Bucharest (68%), and major cities (61%).