Icelanders said „No.” By a narrow margin, but clear enough to close, probably for many years, the discussion about the country’s accession to the European Union.
With 52.8% to 47.2%, voters rejected resuming negotiations with Brussels in a referendum that the government had turned into one of its important projects.
And they weren't even asked to decide whether they wanted to join the EU. The question was whether Iceland should resume accession negotiations, abandoned over a decade ago.
However, the "No" camp managed to turn the vote into a debate about what Iceland could lose if, one day, it became a member of the Union. And one argument weighed heavier than all the others: control over one of the country's most important resources, reports Politico.
An Unexpected "No" with Champagne Ready
At the party organized in Reykjavík by the opponents of resuming negotiations, victory was anticipated even before the first results appeared.
"We will win," said Salma Björk Önnudóttir, one of the coordinators of the "No" campaign.
She was right. The first partial results were greeted with cheers and chants, and the official result, confirmed Sunday morning, sealed the victory for her camp.
The turnout for the referendum was high, even higher than in the last parliamentary elections.
Prime Minister Kristrún Mjöll Frostadóttir, who supported resuming negotiations, praised the mobilization of voters. "It was a joy to see so many people actively engaging in this debate. It raised the discussion about the EU and Iceland's place in the world to a new level," she said after voting.
However, the result shows that the government's strategy did not work. The executive had hoped that a referendum only about resuming negotiations, and not about actual accession, would be easier to win.
What Scared Icelanders
"There are simply too many question marks. I don't trust," explained a voter from the "No" camp to Politico.
The campaign against closer ties with the EU pressed on the sensitive points of an island country that gained its independence after a long process: sovereignty and control over its own resources. Especially over fish.
Fishing remains one of the pillars of the Icelandic economy, and the "No" camp warned that EU membership could mean losing control over fishing quotas and opening the country's waters to foreign companies.
The message resonated. "For the 'No' camp, everything boiled down to one issue: Icelandic fishing and how it would fit into the Common Fisheries Policy, where decisions are shared with 27 other countries," explains Hallgrímur Oddsson, founder of the think tank Evrópustraumar.
Brussels had conveyed before the referendum that it was willing to negotiate and seek compromises on fishing. It wasn't enough.
Some of the opponents of resuming negotiations didn't trust that a country of around 400,000 inhabitants could obtain favorable conditions at the negotiating table with the EU. Others reject accession on principle, regardless of the concessions Brussels might offer.
Neither Euro nor Security Argument Convinced
The "Yes" camp had its own arguments.
Iceland is already part of the European Economic Area and must comply with numerous EU rules, although it does not directly participate in their adoption. Supporters of negotiations argued that accession would give the country a say in making these decisions.
They also raised the issue of the euro currency. Iceland has one of the smallest independent currencies in the world, the Icelandic króna, and the transition to the euro was presented as a possible way to reduce the very high cost of living.
Even this argument was not enough.
The security issue remained secondary, although the government had invoked it as one of the reasons why Iceland should reconsider its relationship with the European Union.
Reykjavík said "Yes." The rest of the country, rather "No"
The voting map also shows a clear divide between the capital and rural regions.
In the northwest of the country, an area heavily dependent on agriculture and fishing, almost 63% of voters voted against resuming negotiations.
Only the two constituencies in Reykjavík offered majorities to the "Yes" camp, and the advantage was smaller than supporters of closer ties with the EU had hoped.
One of the most surprising changes occurred among young people. In June, almost two-thirds of Icelanders aged 18 to 29 said they would probably vote to resume negotiations. By the end of August, the percentage had dropped to just 40%.
Maximilian Conrad, a political scientist and EU expert at the University of Iceland, believes that the "No" camp also won because it managed to change the meaning of the question posed to voters.
"The 'No' camp presented the referendum as if it were already about actual accession, and not about resuming negotiations," he says.
Bad News for Brussels Too
The result is a defeat for the government in Reykjavík, but also a disappointment for the European Union.
An approach by Iceland would have had symbolic value at a time when the relationship between the US and Europe is tense, and Russia and China are expanding their influence.
It would have had a geostrategic stake as well: Iceland occupies an important position in the North Atlantic and near the Arctic, a region where competition between major powers has intensified.
Moreover, the prospect of a new accession could have given impetus to the EU enlargement process, especially as negotiations with several candidate countries are progressing slowly.
For now, however, this possibility fades away.
Hallgrímur Oddsson believes that the issue of EU accession could be off Iceland's agenda for an entire generation. "The only thing that could change that would perhaps be an external shock - for example, a change in the European Economic Area agreement. But that is pure speculation," he says.
However, Iceland and the European Union are not parting ways. The government had announced even before the referendum that, in case of a victory for the "No" camp, it would try to deepen cooperation with Brussels through other means.
G.P.