The political deadlock in Bucharest risks exacerbating Romania’s economic problems and pushing the country towards a severe recession, warns economic consultant Adrian Negrescu.
The analyst argues that the reactions of the financial markets are already visible in the exchange rate, in the state’s financing costs, and in the increasing pressure on the population and companies.
"The exchange rate of the leu/euro surpasses record after record, heading rapidly towards 5.3-5.5 lei/euro," warns Adrian Negrescu. Meanwhile, "the interest rates at which the state borrows have rapidly increased to the highest level in the EU."
According to the analyst, "the corrections dictated by the markets are ruthless," and the bill will be felt by Romanians through price increases and higher financing costs.
Warning regarding the country's rating
According to the consultant, international rating agencies are closely monitoring the political situation in Romania, and any hesitation could have serious consequences.
Negrescu states that the Ministry of Finance has already received "clear warnings" regarding the deterioration of the economic and financial climate. "Any misstep or hesitation in the immediate future could attract a drastic decision, with direct effects on an already vulnerable economy," says the analyst.
He warns that a downgrade of Romania to the "junk" category would mean higher financing costs for both the state and the population and companies. "Predictability and stability are now the only arguments that can calm investors," emphasizes the economic consultant.
Appeal to Bolojan and Nazare
Adrian Negrescu says that maintaining financial discipline is essential to avoid a deeper crisis and calls on interim Prime Minister Ilie Bolojan and Finance Minister Alexandru Nazare to maintain administrative stability.
"I hope that Mr. Bolojan, as interim Prime Minister, and Alexandru Nazare, the Finance Minister, will ensure the timely continuation of payments and will strictly respect their public commitments," he says.
"Financial discipline is no longer just a theoretical recommendation, but a rule of survival," adds the consultant.
Three huge stakes for Romania
The analyst believes that 2026 is a decisive moment for Romania, as the country depends on three major strategic projects.
The first is the implementation of the PNRR and the absorption of available European funds by August. "We have so far only managed to attract a third of the money made available by Brussels," warns Negrescu. If reforms continue to be delayed, "PNRR will remain in Romania's history as the National Plan of Failed Reforms."
The second objective is the use of funds from the European SAFE program, through which Romania can access over 16 billion euros for defense and infrastructure. "SAFE is not a conspiracy, it is a lifeline for Romania from a national security perspective," says the consultant.
He says that the funding is advantageous and can help both in modernizing the army and in continuing major infrastructure projects, including highways in Moldova. "In practice, we are modernizing our army and infrastructure with a loan that we will repay in 45 years," explains Negrescu.
The third objective is Romania's accession to the OECD, which the analyst describes as essential for Romania's credibility in front of investors.
"Markets are not interested in slogans"
The consultant warns that the lack of a stable government and a clear reform program could push Romania into a recession. "If we do not quickly have a government capable of implementing these reforms, unfortunately, we will head towards a harsh recession because markets will not hesitate to penalize Romania for this political drift," says Negrescu.
"Investors are not interested in the electoral struggle, who performs better on television. They make dry, concrete calculations based on predictable data, not on slogans and promises," he states.
The analyst says that the future Executive should quickly come up with precise timelines for reforms and investments. "Without a governance program with a concrete timeline, it is unlikely that this national plan will become a reality," warns the consultant.
Positive economic signals
Despite political tensions, the analysis also points to some encouraging economic developments.
The budget deficit in the first quarter has decreased to 21 billion lei, compared to 43.6 billion in the same period last year.
According to Negrescu, the digitization of the National Agency for Fiscal Administration (ANAF), through systems like e-Invoice and e-Transport, is starting to reduce tax evasion and bring more revenues to the budget.
Additionally, administrative expenses have decreased by 2.8%, and foreign direct investments have increased by 45% in 2025, reaching 8.1 billion euros.
The analyst also notes that investments funded by EU funds and PNRR have increased by 12.7%, reaching 16.23 billion lei. "The projects paid for by Brussels are accelerating," emphasizes Adrian Negrescu.