According to political sources, Nicușor Dan will appoint a technocrat in the coming days to form a parliamentary majority to support the new government, but the chances of success are minimal.
Kelemen Hunor stated that he does not see the formation of „a parliamentary majority at the first attempt. I told the president that I see one on the second try.”
The technocrat designated by Nicușor Dan will most likely be rejected by Parliament, especially if it is Ms. Delia Velculescu, an expert from the IMF.
It would be a disaster for the PSD to vote for an international finance professional with a more reformist vision than that proposed by Ilie Bolojan.
Through such a designation, President Nicușor Dan raises the stakes and once again forces the social democrats to ally with AUR. Regardless of the PNL's and USR's votes, which could be favorable, the extremists and PSD will oppose, and together they already have a majority, tested in the no-confidence motion, of at least 281 votes.
After this stage, if the president's designated technocrat fails to form a majority, a new stage is entered, one in which Nicușor Dan takes an important step towards a possible challenge of early elections.
Nicușor Dan gives an exam
According to Article 89 of the Romanian Constitution, in case Parliament rejects by vote a second designation made by the president, the possibility of dissolving the legislative body is created, but only after a new consultation with the President of the Chamber of Deputies and the President of the Senate, as well as with the leaders of the parliamentary groups.
Additionally, Nicușor Dan can make a third request, but it must fall within the 60-day period starting from the first designation.
There are slim chances for Parliament to be dissolved halfway through the term. Too few deputies and senators are willing to resign and enter into a new exhausting and costly electoral campaign, so such a situation offers the president the opportunity to impose his prime minister and political vision for the immediate future.
Only then will Nicușor Dan face the most important political test of his term. What are the possibilities?
- To designate a technocrat again. If voted this time, he will obtain a reform-oriented government, but one that will not last long. Most likely, a new alliance between PSD and AUR will dismiss him through a vote of no confidence in the parliamentary session in the fall or early next year.
- To appoint Sorin Grindeanu, the leader of the PSD, the party with the most seats in Parliament. This means a minority government, with the support of extremists - AUR, SOS, and remnants of POT. It would be a blow to Romania's prestige and international relations. It would be a political blow to Nicușor Dan. The possibility of the PSD government being quickly dismissed through a vote of no confidence in future sessions should not be excluded, in case AUR realizes it is losing public support following its association with PSD.
- A new designation of Ilie Bolojan. This is the winning formula for Nicușor Dan. He quickly rebuilds his image and gets rid of the toxic association with PSD. If the PNL leader manages to obtain a majority in Parliament, it means a blank check for continuing reforms, this time without PSD. It will be an important signal for the European Commission, which will renegotiate some milestones of the PNRR, saving the SAFE program. On the other hand, the rejection of Ilie Bolojan in Parliament triggers procedures for early elections, where the president and prime minister will be in the same camp, but with a huge anti-PSD polarization.
The only salvation for PSD
The three possibilities will be at the disposal of President Nicușor Dan only after the failure of the first designation.
At that moment, all power moves to the Cotroceni Palace, the head of state having the opportunity, given by the six million voters, to reset the entire political stage through early elections or to impose a compromise situation that will prolong political uncertainty until a new vote of no confidence.
As expected, PSD emerges the weakest from the crisis it has caused on its own. Therefore, the public statement by Lia Olguța Vasilescu, the mayor of Craiova and the informal leader of the social democrats, who advocates for a PSD minority government, seen as the only salvation, should not be overlooked.
“I believe we can gather the necessary votes, supported not only by AUR but also by those who signed and voted for the motion of no confidence. We have already stated that, if it is for PSD to appoint the prime minister, it will be the party leader, Mr. Sorin Grindeanu…”, stated Olguța Vasilescu.
After yesterday's consultations, a revolutionary process has been triggered that will reset the entire political class within a period ranging from three months to two years.