Romania cannot adopt the euro without budget discipline and low inflation, and the current issues are more related to internal economic policy errors rather than the fact that we are not yet in the euro area.
This is one of the central conclusions of the BNR report „Euro Zone Monitor”.
The analysis comes in a complicated economic context, marked by a new energy shock generated by the war in the Middle East and major pressures on the public budget.
Romania cannot enter the euro area without small deficits and stable inflation
The BNR report is very clear about the accession conditions: these are non-negotiable.
"Joining the euro area cannot take place as long as we do not have small budget deficits (3 percent of GDP) and sustainably low inflation, sustainable public debt," the cited document shows.
In other words, the issue is related to persistent economic imbalances. BNR emphasizes that Romania's difficulties are not caused by the lack of the euro, but by internal decisions: "Romania's troubles are mainly caused not by non-membership in the euro area, but by errors in fiscal/budget policy."
Why the comparison with Bulgaria is misleading
An essential point in the report concerns the frequent comparison with Bulgaria, which is much more advanced on the path to the euro.
BNR warns that this comparison overlooks a key element: "The comparison made with Bulgaria, in terms of accession to the euro area, underestimates the role of the monetary council in the public governance of the neighboring country."
Bulgaria has operated for decades with a strict monetary discipline regime, which has limited fiscal slippages and stabilized the economy. Romania, on the other hand, has had more flexible policies but also greater imbalances.
The budget deficit remains the biggest vulnerability
The BNR report shows that Romania comes after years with very high deficits, including over 9% of GDP in 2024, and the adjustment is just underway.
In 2025, the deficit was reduced to 7.65% of GDP, below the initial target, and for 2026, the government is targeting 6.2% of GDP.
However, this correction comes with costs. "The increase in taxes and duties, although painful for citizens, was necessary," the report also states.
BNR also explains the inevitable compromise: reducing the deficit fueled inflation. "Higher inflation could not be avoided in the conditions of tax and duty increases," the document shows.
2026 is not a year of "economic recovery"
An important message of the report is that the economy cannot accelerate in parallel with budget adjustments.
"It is inappropriate to talk about 'economic recovery' in 2026, a year in which budget consolidation is ongoing," BNR justifies.
It also emphasizes that the fiscal impulse is negative, and inflation remains high, limiting the maneuvering space of monetary policy.
The new energy shock risks worsening the situation
The report warns that the war in the Middle East produces a new global shock, comparable to past energy crises.
The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz affects a significant part of global energy flows and can lead to:
- increased fuel prices
- expensive fertilizers and food
- additional pressures on inflation
BNR warns that the impact will vary between states, and the least developed ones will feel the effects more strongly.
Public debt and tax revenues, structural issues
Another alarm signal concerns Romania's low budget revenues, well below the European average.
The level of tax revenues is about 29% of GDP, compared to around 40% in the EU, limiting the state's capacity to manage crises.
At the same time, public debt has increased rapidly, approaching 60% of GDP, and without corrections, it risks rising to 80% in the coming years.