European airlines are making emergency plans to address a potential kerosene shortage at airports across the continent.
The plans include not only reduced flight schedules but also cancellations in specific cases, especially during certain time slots and days of the week, with a particular focus on island destinations, as reported by Corriere della Sera.
"There is nothing concrete at the moment, but considering that the Strait of Hormuz is still closed, the supply issue is becoming increasingly serious for our industry, week by week," said Ryanair's CEO, Michael O'Leary, to the Italian newspaper, on the sidelines of a press conference at the company's low-cost airline headquarters near Dublin.
O'Leary - who leads the airline with the highest number of passengers in Europe, with over 3,000 flights per day — stated that there is no fuel crisis looming in the aviation sector until the beginning of June, but did not detail what would happen after that deadline.
He also refused to confirm his company's plan to deal with a fuel shortage for planes. There is a fear — shared by all airlines — that it could scare passengers, as noted by the Italian daily.
"But, obviously, we are conducting a thorough analysis; we know where we could intervene immediately, if necessary," explained O'Leary.
Other managers, speaking on condition of anonymity, also confirmed that they have some measures prepared and a preliminary list of routes that can be "sacrificed" "immediately."
What will companies do if they start running out of kerosene
- Flight cancellations - "First and foremost, we would eliminate midday flights," revealed O'Leary. "These are the ones that would have the smallest impact on traffic," added two other CEOs. "The goal is to maintain connectivity in the morning, late afternoon, and early evening, taking into account business customers as well."
- Reduced traffic intervals - According to Ryanair's CEO and other colleagues, emergency reductions would also affect "flights on low-traffic days, such as Tuesdays, Wednesdays, or Saturdays." In contrast, departures on Mondays, Fridays, and Sundays would be "untouchable," at least initially.
- Cuts on domestic routes - Emergency plans of airlines also foresee significant cuts on domestic routes in every country "where there is an alternative, such as trains, preferably high-speed ones," explained O'Leary. However, this would shift the pressure to land transportation, with hundreds of thousands of travelers ending up at stations overnight.
- Elimination of the least profitable routes - "We are now in the phase of eliminating the least profitable routes," explained the operations director of a traditional airline. The most affected are seasonal connections with unsatisfactory load rates, secondary destinations operated with low frequency, and routes with the highest competition.
- Defense of operational centers at all costs - Considering that the price of aviation fuel is still above $1,500 per ton (at the end of February it was below $800), and air traffic in the Persian Gulf has practically reduced to zero for several weeks, European airlines must face the most pessimistic scenarios. These, explain CEOs, involve "protecting" at all costs the main operational centers that support their business model.
- Protection of island destinations - Flights to islands would be protected, emphasized O'Leary and other CEOs. The frequency of flights to such destinations would be reduced, but always ensuring daily connectivity, given the logistical disadvantage of islands. Ferries are considered a weak alternative due to travel times.
On paper, reducing frequencies - for example, from three flights a day to one on a certain route - could work. But, industry experts warn, it could be problematic for low-cost airlines: as these operators have record occupancy rates (94-95%), relocating passengers from canceled flights would become challenging.
Apostolos Tzitzikostas, European Commissioner for Transport, stated that "there is currently no evidence of a fuel shortage for planes." However, "the situation is quite critical and we need to be prepared - and we are - for all scenarios," he added during a hearing at the European Parliament's Transport Committee. "The situation remains unstable and uncertain, and cooperation among member states is essential," he emphasized.
T.D.