PSD and AUR have announced that they will jointly submit a motion of no confidence against the Government led by Ilie Bolojan, at a time when the governing coalition has split.
However, beyond the political statements, the key remains parliamentary arithmetic. Simulations show that the two parties are close to a majority, but cannot achieve it alone, making the votes of other formations decisive.
A motion of no confidence is voted on in Parliament, in a joint session, by cumulating the votes from the Chamber of Deputies and the Senate.
According to simulations provided by Sondaje România, the total is 464 mandates, and the majority threshold is 232 votes.
PSD and AUR, 12 votes away from majority
According to the simulation for the joint Parliament:
- PSD: 130 mandates
- AUR: 90 mandates
Total PSD + AUR = 220 votes
Majority threshold = 232 votes
Difference = 12 votes
Therefore, even together, the two parties do not reach the majority. But they are very close.
Who can make the difference
In this context, the decisive votes belong to other formations:
Since PNL and USR have clearly stated that they will no longer form a coalition with PSD, the extremist formations, minorities, and unaffiliated remain:
- PACE - 12 mandates
- Minorities - 17 mandates
- POT - 16 mandates
- SOS - 15 mandates
- Unaffiliated - 19 mandates
Any of these groups can tip the balance.
Majority scenario
Based on these figures, who could form a majority:
PSD + AUR + minorities = 237 votes - fragile majority
PSD + AUR + other small groups - possible majority
Without additional support, the threshold cannot be reached.
Therefore, simulations show that PSD and AUR are close to a majority, but cannot achieve it alone. The difference of 12 votes makes smaller parties and parliamentary groups decisive.
Motions of no confidence rarely lead to the fall of a government: in post-December Romania, only six executives have been ousted through this mechanism, despite dozens of initiatives submitted in Parliament.
What happens if the motion passes
PSD announced that it will submit a motion of no confidence together with AUR, and representatives of the two parties, Petrișor Peiu and Marian Neacșu, have stated that they are already working on the "technical part" of the document, after several rounds of discussions between the leaderships of the formations. The announcement comes after PSD withdrew its ministers from the Executive, leading to the loss of the government majority.
At the same time, PSD leader Sorin Grindeanu states that the party desires a pro-European majority and, in recent days, ruled out a government alongside AUR, citing fundamental differences between the two sides. He stated, "PSD announced that it will not form a majority with AUR (...) there are things that set us apart," emphasizing that any potential governing formula should be a pro-European one.