AUR remains in first place in the voting intention for the parliamentary elections, but continues to lose ground and reaches the lowest level in the past year.
The latest data from Barometru Informat.ro – INSCOP Research (April 2026 edition) indicate not only the evolution of the parties but also an important phenomenon: increasing differences between the declared voting intention and the „secure” vote, meaning the actual level of voter mobilization.
The survey was conducted between April 1st and 7th, with a sample of 1,100 people.
AUR remains the leader, but loses ground
AUR is still in first place, with 37% of the preferences of those who have expressed a political preference. However, there is a decrease compared to previous months and the lowest score recorded since the presidential elections in May 2025.
"AUR reaches the lowest score in the INSCOP measurements taken after the presidential elections in May 2025 (37%), losing 4 percentage points compared to the beginning of the year," explains the trend Remus Ștefureac, the director of INSCOP.
PSD increases, but has less mobilized voters
In second place is PSD, with 20.1%, slightly increasing compared to previous months. PNL reaches 15.5%, and USR 12.7%.
Although PSD gains percentages, the major issue is the mobilization of voters. Remus Ștefureac highlights the difference between the declared intention and the secure vote. "For example, in the case of PSD, there is a 3.5 percentage point difference between those who choose PSD (20.1%) and the mobilized PSD voters (16.6%)," says Ștefureac.
Significant differences between "intention" and "secure vote"
One of the most important signals of the survey is the increase in differences between voters who declare an option and those who say they will definitely go to vote.
According to him, PNL, USR, and AUR have more mobilized voters, while PSD and UDMR are weaker in this regard.
How the complete ranking looks
Among the respondents who indicated a voting option for a party (77.3% of the sample), the distribution is as follows:
- AUR – 37%
- PSD – 20.1%
- PNL – 15.5%
- USR – 12.7%
- UDMR – 4.3%
- POT – 3.6%
- SOS Romania – 2.8%
- SENS – 2.4%
- Independent – 1%
- Other party – 0.7%
What changes if only the secure voters are taken into account
The ranking changes when only those who say they will definitely go to vote are taken into account (55.9% of the total):
- AUR – 38.8%
- PNL – 16.9%
- PSD – 16.6%
- USR – 14.4%
- POT – 4.5%
- UDMR – 3%
- SENS – 2.2%
- SOS Romania – 1.4%
This distribution confirms the issue with PSD: it loses ground to PNL when considering only the mobilized electorate.
Voter turnout: almost two-thirds say they will definitely go to vote
The survey also measures the probability of participation in voting, on a scale from 1 to 10.
64.9% of respondents say they will "definitely" go to vote (rating 10), while 15.8% declare they will definitely not participate (rating 1). The rest are distributed among different probability levels.
How the survey was conducted
The Barometru Informat.ro – INSCOP Research is a monthly survey conducted by INSCOP Research, commissioned by the Informat.ro platform, in partnership with Strategic Thinking Group.
The data was collected through the CATI method (telephone interviews), on a sample of 1,100 people. The maximum error is ±3%, with a confidence level of 95%.