Ukraine’s normally very substantial grain exports are stuck in the country – caught between Russian attacks in the Black Sea, drought on the Danube, and the mistrust of some of Kiev’s closest allies.
It’s bad news for global food prices, writes Politico.
"If things continue at this pace, we will see another global price increase of at least 25–30%, with all the consequences we had in 2022 on global food inflation," said Ukrainian Agriculture Minister Taras Vysotskyi.
With rocket attacks keeping cargo ships away from its ports, Kiev is once again desperately seeking a solution through Europe. However, alternative routes through EU countries on land, including Poland, Hungary, and Slovakia, where previous waves of Ukrainian grain have led governments to face strong negative reactions from the population.
The latest wave of Ukrainian agricultural exports through Eastern Europe sparked massive protests by farmers, especially in Poland, who complained that cheap Ukrainian agricultural products, intended only for transit through the region, were actually ending up on domestic markets. Poland imposed an embargo on Ukrainian cereals in 2023, along with similar measures adopted by Hungary and Slovakia, defying EU trade rules and souring relations with Ukraine.
Ukraine's new requests - and insistence that the cereals are only meant to transit neighboring EU countries - have prompted Warsaw to assure its own farmers that these will not remain in Poland.
"We are doing everything to maintain the embargo," said Polish Agriculture Minister Stefan Krajewski on Monday to Radio ZET, referring to Poland's ban on Ukrainian cereal imports.
Blocked Harvest
One of the world's largest grain-producing countries, Ukraine normally ships over 90% of its agricultural exports by sea. Disruption of this trade after Russia's invasion in 2022 has helped push global food prices to record levels. This summer, Russia and Ukraine have intensified attacks on ports and maritime transport in the Black Sea.
Ukraine exported only 463,000 tons of cereals in the first nine days of August - about a third of the usual pace, Vysotskyi said. By November, when the new harvest begins, the country risks running out of storage space for cereals it cannot export.
Last week, Kiev requested 220 million euros from the European Commission to help its farmers cope with this disruption.
The non-repayable grant would subsidize bank loans, allowing small and medium-sized farms to keep cereals until maritime transport resumes, rather than selling them at a loss. A Commission spokesperson confirmed receiving the request but did not say whether Brussels would provide the funds.
However, money can only buy time. The bigger issue is getting the ships back to Ukrainian ports.
No grain vessel has entered the ports in the Odesa area since the end of July, even though they remain open. In that month, a Russian rocket hit a cargo ship carrying corn leaving the port, killing 10 people on board. The ship sank a week later.
Since that attack, crews have refused to sail, and shipping companies have suspended their services.
"Shipowners and crews are simply afraid. They are not prepared to send the ships," Vysotskyi said. "It's not that it's impossible. They're just not ready to do it."
Back to the Border
With the Black Sea route blocked, Ukraine is negotiating with Romania, Poland, Hungary, Slovakia, and Moldova to transport more cereals overland.
However, these routes cannot simply replace maritime exports.
Transporting cereals by rail and road costs $50-70 more per ton, Vysotskyi said. When grain prices skyrocketed after Russia's widespread invasion in 2022, exporters could absorb this additional cost. At current prices, they can no longer do so. "It's not profitable," Vysotskyi said.
Ukraine's main alternative route, through Romania, also faces issues. The low water level on the Danube limits the amount of goods that can reach the port of Constanța from the Black Sea.
And transporting more cereals overland poses another problem for Kiev: negative political reaction from neighboring EU countries.
Polish farmers blocked border crossings with Ukraine in 2023 and 2024, turning agricultural trade into one of the most explosive political issues between Kiev and one of its strongest supporters during the war.
However, Vysotskyi says Ukraine is not seeking greater access to the EU market.
EU quotas currently limit Ukrainian wheat sales to the bloc to 1.3 million tons per year, which, according to Vysotskyi, makes it "legally impossible" to repeat the previous influx. Kiev would request a higher quota only if the EU itself proposed it, he added.
"There should be a consensus within the EU, along with European farmers," he said.
Warsaw has insisted that the embargo on cereals will remain in place. However, while Ukrainian cereals cannot be sold in Poland, the government is collaborating with Kiev to facilitate their transit.
Discussions with Kiev "focus exclusively on the smooth transport of Ukrainian cereals to third countries, not their export or admission to the Polish market," said the spokesperson for the Polish Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Maciej Wewiór, adding that Ukrainian cereals remain essential for many countries in Asia and Africa.
Trust Deficit
For Polish farmers, assurances that cereals will transit the country without interruptions are not enough, with agricultural organizations claiming that some shipments purportedly destined for other countries never actually leave Poland.
Gustaw Jędrejek, head of the Agricultural Chamber of Lublin and one of the leaders of the border blockades, stated that some shipments are electronically registered as being delivered abroad, while the cereals are sold within Poland.
"Documents end up in Lithuania, the Czech Republic, or Slovakia — and the cereals stay in Poland," he said. The Polish government has consistently denied these accusations.
Asked if he trusts the assurances that the new quantities of Ukrainian cereals will simply transit the country, Jędrejek was categorical: "I absolutely do not believe it at all."