The International Monetary Fund (IMF) estimates that Romania’s economy will contract by 0.5% in 2026, after previously anticipating a growth of 0.7% in the spring. The institution has also worsened its forecasts for inflation and unemployment, and the economic recovery in 2027 is expected to be slower than initially estimated.
According to data from the World Economic Outlook report, October edition, analyzed by Profit.ro, the IMF now expects Romania to end the year in recession, instead of the modest economic growth anticipated six months ago.
For 2027, the institution estimates an economic growth of 2.2%, down from the previous forecast of 2.5%.
Higher Inflation and Rising Unemployment
The IMF has also revised upwards its estimates for inflation. Consumer prices are expected to rise by an average of 8.2% in 2026, compared to the 7.8% previously anticipated by the institution in the spring.
For next year, the average inflation is estimated at 4.1%, up from the previous forecast of 3.9%.
The outlook is also bleak for the labor market. The unemployment rate is projected to reach 6.5% this year, above the 6.1% level recorded in 2025. In the spring, the IMF estimated a 6% unemployment rate for 2026.
Persistent High External Deficit
The IMF also anticipates a deterioration of the current account deficit, which is expected to reach 7% of GDP in 2026, 0.2 percentage points higher than the previous estimate. For 2027, the institution forecasts a reduction of the deficit to 6.7% of GDP.
The IMF's estimates align closely with those of the World Bank, which recently lowered its forecast for Romania.
The European Commission is set to publish its own updated economic forecasts next month. In its report from May, Brussels anticipated a mere 0.1% economic growth for Romania in 2026.
Globally, the outlook is somewhat more positive. According to Reuters, the IMF forecasts a global economic growth of 3.1% in 2026, surpassing the 3% forecast from July. Investments in artificial intelligence support economic activity, but high energy prices, conflicts, and public debts continue to pose significant risks.