Viktor Orbán may have left, but tensions within the European Union do not disappear with him. On the contrary, the question now emerging in Brussels is who will take his place as the uncomfortable leader capable of blocking key decisions.
An analysis by Politico Europe shows that there are already several obvious candidates.
The change comes at a sensitive moment for the EU, which needs unity for adopting sanctions, budgets, and other decisions that still require unanimity. In this context, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has already suggested changing voting rules to avoid blockages like those generated by Budapest in recent years.
A political model that "collapsed"
For years, Viktor Orbán has used the veto right to block major initiatives, especially EU support for Ukraine. After a severe defeat in the elections, he will be replaced by Péter Magyar, perceived as more open to collaboration with Brussels.
There is hope that this change will facilitate consensus. "My impression is that the political model of being a systemic and structural disruptor collapsed with the severe defeat of Fidesz in the elections," said a European diplomat.
However, Orbán's disappearance from the European Council table does not guarantee a peaceful period. There are still leaders willing to play a similar role or, at least, to complicate negotiations on sensitive issues.
Robert Fico, the possible successor to the veto
The first name indicated is that of Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico, a constant ally of Orbán in blocking sanctions against Russia and in negotiations regarding support for Ukraine.
Fico recently warned that he could block European funds intended for Kiev, worth 90 billion euros, if Hungary no longer does so. "I am interested in being a constructive actor in the European Union, but not at the expense of Slovakia," he declared last summer.
It remains to be seen whether he will follow through with his threat. In the past, the Slovak leader has taken a step back at key moments and ultimately supported EU common positions.
Andrej Babiš, the "Czech Trump," increasingly vocal
Another potential blocking factor is Czech Prime Minister Andrej Babiš, a populist billionaire who has already adopted some positions close to those of Orbán.
He, along with Budapest and Bratislava, has called for derogations from the financial support granted to Ukraine and has criticized EU climate policies, arguing that the carbon certificate scheme affects the Czech industry.
European diplomats do not expect Babiš to systematically block decisions, but anticipate that he will be "difficult on certain issues," especially when they go against the prevailing direction in the EU.
Giorgia Meloni, between pragmatism and ideology
Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni is seen as a more complex case. Although coming from the same political family as Orbán, she has generally taken a pragmatic approach in her relationship with Brussels.
Instead of blocking decisions, Meloni has tried to build alliances, including with leaders like Mette Frederiksen, to influence EU policies, especially on the issue of migration.
However, there are signals that she may sometimes play a role similar to that of the former Hungarian prime minister. "At the last European Council, the only person who agreed with Orbán was Meloni. It seems there is an ideological connection between them," said a European diplomat.
The return of Janša would strengthen the populist camp
In Slovenia, former Prime Minister Janez Janša could return to power after the recent elections, depending on government formation negotiations.
Considered a "mini-Trump," Janša would strengthen the populist camp in the EU. However, unlike Orbán, he has strongly supported Ukraine, including through a visit to Kiev in 2022 at the beginning of the Russian invasion.
This difference suggests that, although he could be an uncomfortable leader, his positions may not completely align with those of the former Hungarian prime minister.
Rumen Radev, a possible new point of tension
Another name closely watched is Rumen Radev, former President of Bulgaria, who is trying to return to the forefront through a new party.
According to polls, he has real chances of winning Sunday's elections, which could complicate the EU's position on Ukraine. Radev has stated in the past that Ukraine is "doomed to fail" in the war with Russia and that sending weapons is not the solution.
His statements elicited a sharp response from Volodymyr Zelenskyy, in a tense exchange in 2023. "Would you say: Putin, please take Bulgarian territory?," the Ukrainian leader asked. Visibly flustered, Radev had difficulty responding.