The conflict between the US and Iran could have ripple effects all the way to Moscow and Kiev. Russia could benefit from energy blockades in the Gulf, Ukraine fears losing access to Patriot missiles, and on the Iran front, a wear and tear issue is already emerging: drones worth $20,000 are being shot down by $4 million interceptors.
The looming question for everyone: who will run out of ammunition first?
Russia and the "Strait of Hormuz Equation"
Russia could become an unexpected beneficiary of the conflict between Iran and the US, warns Malte Humpert, founder and senior member of the Arctic Institute, in an analysis quoted by Politico.
"The question is how long the situation in the Strait of Hormuz will last," Humpert said, referring to the blockade in the vital waterway for Persian Gulf oil exports. "If it continues for a few weeks, especially as we enter the summer months, then Russian exports will truly increase."
In his view, supply disruptions "always favor the seller who can deliver on time, reliably, and with discounts," creating opportunities for sanctioned Russian cargoes, especially for buyers from India, Pakistan, and China.
Pressure in Europe
Instability in the Middle East could also complicate the energy plans of the European Union. The EU's ban on Russian LNG imports is set to take effect next year, but global turbulence could fuel internal debates.
"There will be voices in the EU questioning whether it is wise to stop importing Russian LNG in the context of global supply insecurity," Humpert emphasized.
Currently, Moscow supplies Europe with 16–17 million tons of liquefied natural gas, and replacing these volumes in a tense context becomes an additional challenge.
Zelenski's Warning
On another front, the conflict risks directly affecting Ukraine. President Volodymyr Zelensky has warned that a prolonged war in the Middle East could reduce the availability of essential air defense systems for Kiev.
Patriot missiles made in the US are considered vital for intercepting Russian missiles. European officials, quoted under anonymity, fear that American and Israeli involvement against Iran will deplete stocks originally intended for other theaters of operation.
"So far, everything is going as usual, but, of course, we know that a long war, if it will be long, and the intensity of hostilities will affect the number of air defense systems we have," Zelensky said. "Everyone understands that for us, these air defense missiles represent our lives," he added.
The War of Attrition: Cheap Drones, Expensive Interceptors
Just three days after hostilities erupted, the conflict has taken on the characteristics of a war of attrition, notes Bloomberg. Iran has launched waves of Shahed-136 drones and ballistic missiles, targeting American bases, oil infrastructure, and civilian targets.
Patriot systems have managed to intercept over 90% of Iranian missiles, according to the United Arab Emirates. However, the cost is enormous: a PAC-3 missile costs around $4 million, while a Shahed drone costs about $20,000.
The price difference brings back an old strategic dilemma: cheap weapons can quickly deplete resources intended for complex threats.
Who Will Run Out of Ammunition First?
According to an internal analysis consulted by Bloomberg, Qatar's Patriot missile stocks would last for only four days at the current rate of use. Iran has already launched over 1,200 projectiles, most likely Shahed drones, and could reserve ballistic missiles for sustained attacks.
Becca Wasser, defense lead at Bloomberg Economics, estimates that it is unlikely the US has moved enough ammunition to the region to sustain four weeks of operations, as President Donald Trump estimated.
US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth declared on Monday, "This is not Iraq, this is not an endless situation here."
Meanwhile, Iran has practically run out of modern air defense after its batteries, including Russian S-300 systems, were hit in the early hours of the conflict. American and Israeli planes currently operate in Iranian airspace without reported difficulties.
"Meanwhile, Iran's stock of missiles and drones could be depleted, and the regime itself could remain intact, even in a state of chaos," said Ankit Panda, senior researcher at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. "This seems to be a likely outcome, based on the first 60 hours of this war."