The United Nations warns that a new episode of the El Niño climate phenomenon could start in the coming weeks and could amplify the effects of global warming already felt on the planet. Meteorologists estimate that there is an 80% probability for the phenomenon to establish itself between the months of June and August.
According to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), the unusually high temperatures of the waters in the tropical Pacific create favorable conditions for the emergence of a new El Niño episode, which could influence temperatures and precipitation patterns globally.
### High chances for the phenomenon to last until the end of the year
WMO estimates that the probability of El Niño persisting at least until November exceeds 90%. Specialists believe that the phenomenon will be at least of moderate intensity, but there is also a possibility for it to become a strong one.
The last El Niño episode, occurring in 2023 and 2024, contributed to making those years the warmest ever recorded globally.
The data analyzed by meteorologists show that the temperatures of the waters in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific have already approached the specific thresholds of the phenomenon. In some areas, temperatures below the ocean surface exceed by over 6 degrees Celsius the normal values for this time of year.
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### What is El Niño and why does it occur
El Niño is a natural climatic phenomenon characterized by abnormal warming of the surface waters in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean. It occurs, on average, once every two to seven years and can last between nine and twelve months.
By altering the global atmospheric circulation, El Niño influences the climate in numerous regions of the world and can trigger extreme weather events, from severe droughts to floods and heatwaves.
### UN: We must prepare for severe effects
The Secretary-General of WMO, Celeste Saulo, warned that the world must be prepared for a strong episode.
„We must prepare for a potentially strong El Niño episode that will exacerbate droughts and heavy rains and increase the risk of heatwaves both on land and in the oceans,” she stated.
Similarly, the Secretary-General of the UN, Antonio Guterres, warned that the effects of the phenomenon will overlap with the global warming caused by human activity.
„The El Niño conditions will add fuel to a warming planet. The impacts will be even stronger and felt over even greater distances,” he said.
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### What effects are expected in the coming months
For the period of June-August, WMO estimates temperatures above normal values in almost all regions of the globe. Risks include more intense heatwaves, droughts in certain areas, and episodes of extreme precipitation in others.
Meteorologists anticipate below-average precipitation in the Horn of Africa, a weaker monsoon in South Asia, and warmer and drier conditions in Central America. Additionally, the warmer waters in the Pacific could favor hurricane formation in this region, while the activity of tropical cyclones in the Atlantic could be reduced.
### Fears of a „super El Niño”
Several forecasts from meteorological agencies suggest that the emerging episode could become one of the most powerful ever observed.
Specialists use the term „super El Niño” for episodes where the warming of the Pacific waters exceeds two degrees Celsius above normal values. Such phenomena have been rare in recent decades, but new estimates indicate that the current episode could equal or even surpass previous records.
Past experiences have shown that very strong El Niño episodes can cause food price hikes, poor harvests, and economic losses of hundreds of billions or even trillions of dollars globally, as their effects propagate through supply chains and world economies.