The international rating agency Fitch will not downgrade Romania’s sovereign rating to the „junk” area on Friday, according to Erste Bank analysts.
On Friday, after the closing of the financial markets in the US, Fitch Ratings is scheduled for a new rating decision and review of the outlook for Romania.
The analysts at the Austrian bank Erste, which locally owns Banca Comercială Română (BCR), say that although "Romania is certainly in the spotlight" for investors, no changes are expected.
"On Friday, after the markets close, Fitch will review the ratings and outlooks for the Czech Republic, Croatia, and Romania. Although Romania is certainly in the spotlight, we do not expect any changes for any of the mentioned countries. (...) No changes are expected to Romania's rating and outlook," write the Erste/BCR analysts.
It is worth mentioning that Fitch changed Romania's associated perspective to negative in December 2024, and since then has consistently confirmed the rating despite political and electoral turbulence or the budget deficit reaching 9.3% of GDP in 2025 - all thanks to the fiscal consolidation plan of the PSD-PNL-USR-UDMR coalition, implemented by the Bolojan Government.
The fiscal consolidation trajectory in the first 6 months of this year, greatly improved compared to all estimates, clearly outlines a scenario of maintaining the rating and a possible improvement in the outlook for next year. The risk is a political deadlock on the laws necessary for receiving European funds from the PNRR, on which the payment of investments depends, practically affecting the level of the deficit.
Budget execution indicates reaching the 6.2% of GDP deficit target
The budget deficit in the first semester amounted to 2% of GDP (41 billion lei), compared to 3.64% in S1 2025 (69.8 billion lei), according to the six-month budget execution published on Friday by the Ministry of Finance.
The 1.65 percentage points correction of GDP was, on one hand, a consequence of improved collection, especially where taxation increased (VAT, income tax, property tax, and contributions).
On the other hand, it was the result of lower expenditures: state expenses on salaries decreased, as did investments from own sources - while investments from European funds increased significantly.
Total expenses for investments, capital expenditures, and development programs increased by 9.52 billion lei in S1 2026 compared to S1 2025.
Read the full analysis Fitch announces Romania's rating on Friday: Erste analysts say neither the rating nor the outlook will change, despite the political situation - Budget deficit of only 2% of GDP in the semester will save the rating on Curs de Guvernare