The head of state has made the most bold move since the beginning of the crisis. He has sent a message to parties announcing that on Friday he will sign the decree to dissolve Parliament if Luca Niculescu fails to form a majority to support a new government.
The Cotroceni Palace „leaked” to the press the „threat” addressed to the parties.
Nicușor Dan did not resort to the leverage of dissolving Parliament in the case of Siegfried Mureșan (PNL), even though he had the possibility. His rejection by Parliament already met the conditions stipulated by the Constitution for triggering the process of early elections.
"The National Liberal Party is considering concluding a bilateral political agreement with the designated Prime Minister, Luca Niculescu. The document will not represent a coalition agreement and will not entail the participation of the PNL in the government, but will establish the transparent conditions under which the liberals can contribute to the country's stability in the next 6 months," announced Ilie Bolojan, during Tuesday, indicating that PNL parliamentarians will give a "vote of installation" to the Government of Luca Niculescu.
The announcement of the PNL president, still the ousted prime minister through a vote of no confidence, will lead to the formation of a government of technocrats and politicians, at least as suggested by Luca Niculescu, the designated Prime Minister.
It must be emphasized, however, that the new government will benefit from the support of PSD, UDMR, and PNL parliamentarians for a period of at least six months.
It's much, it's little, remains to be seen, but after this half-year, it's hard to believe that a new political crisis will not erupt, and parliamentary elections could still be avoided.
A few votes
According to several sources consulted for writing the article, there is a high possibility that in 2027 there will be a reset of the political system, meaning the suspension of the president and new elections, both parliamentary and presidential.
An indirect proof is the signature collection campaign that AUR is conducting in Parliament to trigger the process of suspending the president.
"In the last 48 hours, things have changed radically. The signatures of PSD parliamentarians for the president's suspension are not a minor episode. It is an operation set in motion these days, which strikingly resembles the one from November 2024. 18 votes are still missing. With the help of PSD, they will be gathered at AUR and other extremist formations in a few months...," announced Alexandru Muraru, PNL deputy, in a social media post on Monday, October 12.
For the suspension procedure of the president, 155 signatures of senators and deputies are required. On the platform created by AUR to monitor these signatures, it appears that so far 119 parliamentarians have signed the motion, with a deficit of 36.
The Liberal deputy talks about the fact that only 18 signatures are still needed.
Anyway, there is pressure on Nicușor Dan in Parliament, which he cannot avoid, because in the event of a suspension, he does not have the necessary public support to return to office following a referendum.
Two problematic images
Thus, without a party, without voters, the President of Romania politically survives "aided" by an informal power system, in which the actions of individuals from intelligence agencies and key figures from the administration intertwine, with connections and influence in opaque power areas.
Two images, extremely disturbing for President Nicușor Dan, indicate that individuals from this informal power system have a significant influence within his circle and interact not only with political leaders, but also with pressure groups from both the country and abroad.
The first image is one where a "mysterious photographer" caught Nicușor Dan at a table with General Lucian Pahonțu, alongside Rareș Bogdan, a PNL coupist, Victor Negrescu, PSD, and presidential advisers.
The fact that a general, the head of the SPP, is in the intimate circle of the head of state and attends political discussions has raised many questions to which Nicușor Dan has not rushed to respond.
The second image is even more problematic. There we have Florin Lazăr Vlădică, from the National Security Department of the presidential administration, a state counselor, alongside Sorin Grindeanu, the leader of PSD, and Kimberly Guilfoyle, the US Ambassador to Greece, who resigned on Tuesday, following the scandal caused by her statement that she brought down the Ilie Bolojan Government.
This complicated chapter, in which an American official boasts of influencing the fall of a prime minister from a European Union country, is far from over.
The fact that Donald Trump demanded the resignation of Ambassador Guilfoyle, a close associate of his family, indicates the seriousness of the situation.
Even more serious is that a high-ranking official, directly subordinate to the President of Romania, participates in a meeting where, very likely, discussions took place with a foreign official about triggering a political crisis in Bucharest. The subject will remain a major vulnerability for Nicușor Dan in the future.
Generals and politics
At any time, even after the vote on the Luca Niculescu Government, a parliamentary majority can be formed to trigger a new political crisis, just as the one caused by the motion of no confidence.
This time it could be about initiating procedures to suspend the president.
To generate political and economic instability, the legal procedures do not even need to be completed, but simply to create debates and tensions that further weaken Nicușor Dan.
The President of Romania made a major mistake when he tried to compensate for the lack of political support with individuals from the militarized institutional area.
And not because they do not do everything possible to help him, but simply because their help quickly becomes a burden.
The intelligence, security, and defense structures operate based on strict hierarchies and act on orders, receive a mission and carry it out. And this is the death of political leadership, which must take into account nuances, side effects, new obstacles, intermediate results, and especially the trends in which they operate.
This is also the reason why generals, for the most part, are disastrous as political leaders, with very few managing to assert themselves in both arenas, their dominant tendency being to remove democratic disorder and establish dictatorship.