The camp that supported Vladimir Putin’s war for years is starting to show increasingly clear signs of dissatisfaction. Russian soldiers, bloggers, and nationalists openly criticize the Kremlin, amid the lack of significant progress on the front, increasing losses, and internal problems eroding confidence in the country’s leadership.
An episode at the end of June illustrates this change in tone. A Russian soldier publicly threatened to organize a coup against the Kremlin before being arrested and later apologizing to Vladimir Putin.
According to an analysis published by Kiev Independent, the incident does not indicate an imminent revolt in the Russian army, but it reflects a growing trend: some of those who represented the hardcore supporters of the war are becoming one of the most powerful sources of criticism against the Kremlin.
Soldier who threatened the Kremlin
At the end of June, Russian soldier Aleksandr Lunin posted a video message on Instagram requesting a meeting with Vladimir Putin and accusing systemic abuses against Russian soldiers.
"The army will turn its weapons against the Kremlin," he warned in the recording that garnered approximately 10 million views.
Shortly after, Lunin was arrested and spent 11 days in detention, accused of displaying extremist symbols. Upon release, he posted a new video apologizing to the Russian president.
Analysts consulted by the Ukrainian publication suggest that the episode inevitably recalls the failed revolt of the Wagner group, led by Yevgeny Prigozhin in 2023. However, they believe that the Russian army is far from an organized rebellion.
Lowering morale among Russian nationalists
Russian journalist Ivan Filippov, who monitors the activities of pro-war communities online, says that Lunin is not an influential figure in this area and does not represent an organized movement.
However, his gesture is relevant in the context in which it appears.
According to Filippov, the morale of the pro-war nationalist community is at one of the lowest levels since the beginning of the invasion.
The discontent is not limited to soldiers. In March, blogger Ilya Remeslo, previously known for his virulent attacks against the Russian opposition, posted several messages calling Putin "an illegitimate president," demanding his resignation and trial as a "war criminal and thief." A day later, the Russian press reported that he had been admitted to a psychiatric hospital in St. Petersburg.
Stagnant front and mounting problems in Russia
According to Filippov, the main cause of dissatisfaction is the lack of significant results on the front.
For months, the Russian army has failed to achieve significant territorial gains, while drone attacks launched by Ukraine increasingly affect supply lines and oil infrastructure within Russia.
These issues are compounded by internal problems. The blocking of the Telegram application in March sparked strong discontent and fueled a crisis of confidence in the country's leadership.
At the same time, The Moscow Times reported in June that the state-controlled VCIOM polling institute had stopped publishing the "open" trust indicator in Vladimir Putin after it dropped to its lowest level since the beginning of the large-scale invasion.
Slowing recruitment and rising costs
And military recruitment data suggest that Russia is facing difficulties.
Katia Bonci-Osmolovskaia, coordinator of the iStories investigative team, states that military recruitment in Russia has decreased by about 20% in the first months of 2026 compared to the same period last year.
However, other experts caution that these figures should be interpreted with caution and recruitment rates seem to be recovering in the second quarter.
Even in this scenario, maintaining personnel levels becomes increasingly costly. The bonuses offered to those signing contracts with the army continue to rise, putting pressure on regional budgets. In some poorer areas, authorities have even resorted to coercive methods to persuade people to enlist.
Tens of thousands of desertions and decreasing motivation
Russia continues to record a high number of desertions and soldiers leaving their units without authorization.
Estimates for 2025 indicated around 50,000 cases of desertion or unauthorized absence, and nearly 28,000 soldiers were convicted for such actions.
In addition to these numbers, there are increasing reports of mistreatment in the Russian army, suggesting serious morale issues.
"Most continue to fight out of inertia, either for money or because they are unable to terminate their contracts before the end of the war," says journalist Dmitry Kuznetsov.
In his opinion, Russian soldiers are no longer seeking solutions to gain advantages on the battlefield. "Most of their energy is now used to reduce their own risk of dying," he concludes.