Many Europeans believe that a war with Russia is possible, as shown by a survey conducted in nine member states of the European Union and published on Thursday by the French magazine Le Grand Continent.
According to the study, 51% of respondents believe there is a „high” or „very high” risk that Russia will go to war with their country in the coming years.
The research was conducted on a sample of 9,553 individuals, using the quota method.
The question asked at the end of November was: "In your opinion, could Russia go to war with your country in the coming years?"
Poland perceives the greatest danger, Italy the smallest
The nine countries included in the study were France, Germany, Italy, Spain, Poland, Portugal, Croatia, Belgium, and the Netherlands. The perception of risk varies significantly depending on the national context:
- In Poland, located near Russia and Belarus, 77% of respondents see the risk as high or very high.
- In France, the percentage is 54%, and in Germany it is 51%.
- On the other hand, 65% of Italians believe that the risk of war with Russia is low or non-existent.
The study also indicates that 81% of Europeans do not believe or believe very little in a conflict with China in the coming years.
"Russia therefore represents by far the most serious threat of state war in the European opinion," notes Le Grand Continent, a geopolitical publication affiliated with the Ecole Normale Supérieure in France.
Terrorism perceived as an immediate threat
The publication emphasizes that while Russia is seen as a major geopolitical threat, terrorism remains the main immediate danger: 63% of respondents consider the risk of open conflict with terrorist organizations as "high" or "very high."
At the same time, over two-thirds of those surveyed (69%) are skeptical about their own countries' ability to defend themselves against Russian aggression.
In France, the only country with nuclear weapons in the sample, respondents are the least pessimistic: 44% believe that their country is "absolutely" or "rather" capable of defending itself.
On the other hand, Belgians, Italians, and Portuguese are at the opposite end, where 87%, 85%, and 85%, respectively, believe that their country could not withstand an attack.
Europe, between the USA and China. Trump divides opinions
The survey also addresses broader geopolitical issues. 55% of participants believe that Europe should adopt a balanced position between the United States and China.
At the same time, 48% consider Donald Trump to be "an enemy of Europe," with significant differences between countries.
The majority of those surveyed view immigration as "a threat to national cohesion," a perception stronger in northern and eastern Europe. Additionally, respondents favor reducing public spending and the number of officials.