A clear victory for the far right in Saxony-Anhalt will harm Merz. However, the situation will become complicated even if his party is forced to form coalitions with left-wing parties to keep AfD out of power.
For Chancellor Friedrich Merz, Sunday’s elections in eastern Germany offer no favorable scenarios, only varying degrees of political humiliation. According to pre-election polls, it is anticipated that the Alternative for Germany (AfD) party will achieve a clear victory in the state of Saxony-Anhalt, significantly outperforming Merz’s conservatives.
Such a result would clearly demonstrate the extent to which the far right has consolidated and surpassed traditional parties in vast regions of the country, writes POLITICO.
The humiliation would be even greater for Merz if AfD were to garner enough votes to secure an absolute parliamentary majority and govern the state alone. At least from the perspective of German traditional parties, this would reserve an unenviable place in the country's post-war history for him: that of a national leader under whose leadership the far right has, for the first time since World War II, gained real governing power, notes the publication.
The other likely scenarios do not offer much reason for optimism for Merz.
Scenario 1: AfD Takes Power
If AfD manages to obtain enough votes to govern alone in Saxony-Anhalt, this would represent, in certain aspects, a simpler and more convenient outcome for Merz's conservatives.
Some CDU politicians in the state see significant advantages that would offer conservatives a benefit that AfD has long enjoyed: the ability to attack the government from the comfort of the opposition. Conservatives believe that a period of AfD governance could turn into a fiasco capable of discrediting the far right, thus paving the way for a subsequent CDU comeback.
"On the day (Siegmund) becomes premier, it's over," said Alexander Räuscher, a CDU deputy from Saxony-Anhalt, referring to the main AfD candidate in this election. "That's my opinion. He will fail as the state premier. He won't be able to honor all the promises he made."
However, this outcome still involves significant risks that could hasten Merz's downfall, as political pressure on him and his conservatives is likely to increase even further after the elections in Saxony-Anhalt.
AfD is expected to win the regional elections in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania and is posting solid results even in Berlin – a left-wing stronghold – ahead of the scheduled ballot at the end of this month; four more state-level elections are planned for next year.
CDU parliamentarians fear that a major defeat in Saxony-Anhalt could trigger a chain reaction, leading to other significant failures. Additionally, the situation could spark an open conflict within the party regarding the maintenance of the "cordon sanitaire" instituted by Merz against AfD – the commitment not to govern alongside the far right – a strategy that some conservatives believe has actually contributed to AfD's consolidation, forcing the party to govern with left-wing formations.
There are already signs of overt opposition to Merz's commitment not to officially collaborate with the far right, especially in the eastern part of the country. "Anyone who still talks about 'cordon sanitaire' has not understood the signs of the times," said Michael Kretschmer, the CDU premier of the eastern state of Saxony, in July.
Scenario 2: Conservatives Forced to Form a Minority Government Supported by the Far Left
If AfD fails to secure an absolute majority, it will force CDU to attempt to govern, in some form, alongside other parties — most likely all left-wing, including the far-left party Die Linke ("The Left").
Merz's CDU has ruled out any form of official cooperation not only with AfD but also with Die Linke – a party that, according to polls, is expected to rank third. Therefore, CDU could form a minority government alongside the Social Democratic Party (center-left), which is expected to rank fourth, and possibly alongside the Greens.
However, given the electoral calculations, it would be difficult to avoid some form of collaboration with Die Linke – at least if cooperation with AfD is excluded. This would make CDU dependent on Die Linke's support for the election of the premier and the adoption of legislation.
There are already precedents for such a formula. In the eastern states of Thuringia and Saxony, CDU leads minority governments with the official support of Die Linke. The far-left party has announced that it will support a similar arrangement in Saxony-Anhalt, but will demand something in return.
However, within CDU, opposition to such a formula is growing. A local branch of CDU has already rejected any governing coalition that could survive only with the "goodwill, tolerance, or explicit agreement" of Die Linke.
"A model that gives The Left a de facto veto right over the entire activity of a center-right government is unacceptable," the document states.
However, many CDU members argue that governing alongside left-wing parties actively strengthens AfD, giving them arguments to portray conservatives as disguised leftists.
Scenario 3: "Kanzlertausc"
The chancellor enters the elections in Saxony-Anhalt — as well as in two other ballots scheduled for September 20 — from a precarious position.
Regardless of Sunday's result, the elections could trigger a series of events for Merz — a leader already historically weakened — that could ultimately lead to his downfall. It is unclear if he has a coherent strategy to manage the situation's consequences, writes POLITICO.
Already the least popular chancellor since such statistics exist, after 16 months in office, Merz's conservative colleagues are discreetly discussing a remarkable scenario by German standards: a so-called "Kanzlertausc," meaning a change of chancellor.
T.D.