Europeans, for the most part, desire a strong, united Europe capable of acting independently. However, few believe that current leaders can turn this desire into reality, and the sense of decline provides fertile ground for far-right parties.
These conclusions come from a study conducted by the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR), a pan-European think tank, based on 5,800 interviews in France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Poland, and the United Kingdom, as well as an analysis of political and media discourse in 15 countries, as reported by The Guardian.
The results describe a population with high expectations for the European project but deeply disappointed by the direction in which the continent is heading.
Nearly seven out of ten respondents, 68%, speak of a "general deterioration" or "loss of normalcy." Only 12% believe that the current period represents a moment of "European awakening and renewal."
At the same time, 56% believe that the future of Europe is "in danger."
A More United Europe
However, dissatisfaction does not mean that people have given up on the European project. 73% of those interviewed desire a strong European vision: 35% want more political unity and integration, 28% prioritize peace and security, and 19% hope for greater prosperity.
Only 13% wish for reduced European integration or even the dismantling of the European Union.
The main issues identified by respondents are war, mentioned by 43%, economic pressures, indicated by 33%, and the need for Europe to become more independent internationally, mentioned by 29%.
However, three-quarters of participants, specifically 74%, believe that Europe is not responding well to these challenges.
"The problem is not that people have stopped wanting a stronger Europe but that they no longer believe this can be achieved," explains Paweł Zerka, an ECFR researcher and the study's author.
He speaks of a "chasm of imagination": Europeans can imagine the continent they want to live in, but they do not see a credible path for the current Europe to get there. "These are policy issues, not just communication issues," Zerka emphasizes.
Four Categories of Europeans
The study authors divide the public into four groups based on how they view the present and future of Europe.
"Optimists," representing 19%, are staunch supporters of the European project and believe that the current crises can lead to deeper integration.
"Pessimists," the largest group at 39%, think that Europe's best days are behind it. Nearly half of respondents from France, Germany, and Italy fall into this category.
Among pessimists are almost all voters of the analyzed far-right parties, such as AfD in Germany, National Rally in France, Party for Freedom in the Netherlands, and Reform UK in the United Kingdom. Of these, 83% describe Europe in terms of loss and decline.
Another group, the "Disconnected," represents 12%. For these voters, European integration is a distant subject that sparks little interest.
The last category, that of "Uncertains," comprises 31% of respondents. They share European values and remain attached to the idea of a united Europe but doubt that it can act decisively, protect its citizens, and defend its values.
"EU Talks a Lot but Does Nothing"
The slowness of European decisions is one of the most common criticisms in interviews, mentioned by 32% of respondents. "Essentially, the EU talks a lot but does nothing," said a young Polish participant in the study.
Almost a third of those interviewed, 30%, also reproach Europe for failing to defend its position when faced with powerful actors. The tariff concessions recently granted to US President Donald Trump are presented in the study as a symbol of this weakness.
Paweł Zerka believes that the "Uncertains" will be decisive for the future direction of the continent. Leaders tend to address either staunch integration supporters or give in to eurosceptics, although the future of the European project will be decided among those who still hesitate.
To regain their trust, politicians must demonstrate that collective action can solve concrete problems, such as energy security, defense, climate change, and the cost of living.
The study is published a week before the President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, delivers the annual State of the Union address. According to the author, the message for European leaders is that people need fewer grand promises and more evidence that Europe is actually moving in the desired direction.