In response to not being invited to negotiations, George Simion has announced that his parliamentarians will vote for any motion of no confidence against the current government.
Additionally, the populist leader expressed skepticism about a relationship with the PSD.
„We do not consider it a serious party that will submit a motion of no confidence and will successfully carry out what it has started…”, stated George Simion in front of journalists.
From any angle events are viewed, following PSD's announcement that it is leaving the governing coalition, the political referee has become AUR. Ilie Bolojan cannot be removed from the Victoria Palace without PSD submitting a motion of no confidence or without at least 26 social-democrat parliamentarians signing the motion initiated by AUR.
According to the Romanian Constitution, for a motion of no confidence to be submitted and voted on in the joint chambers of Parliament, it must be signed by a quarter of the total number of senators and deputies, which is 465/4, meaning 116.
After the 2024 elections, PSD obtained 131 mandates, while AUR obtained 90.
Thus, Simion's statement is actually an attack on PSD, but also an incitement, with the objective pursued by AUR, practically impossible to achieve, being to trigger early elections.
Simion would greatly benefit from a political deadlock leading to the dissolution of Parliament, because in the case of a new election, AUR would have a chance to win. However, the occurrence of such a situation is unlikely, as no other political formation desires early elections.
Complicated Calculations
On the other hand, with PSD's exit from the governing coalition and likely entrance into the opposition, there will be a competition with the formation led by George Simion for nationalist voters.
Even a punctual alliance between PSD and AUR, aimed at toppling the government, would have a deficit of at least 12 votes, with the necessary majority being 233 votes. This is crucial in terms of the vote on the motion and the formation of a new majority.
On the other hand, a minority government led by Ilie Bolojan currently relies on 181 votes in parliament, having a deficit of 52 for control.
The fact that Nicușor Dan did not invite AUR to negotiations shows the president's decision not to appoint a prime minister from this party in any of the upcoming scenarios.
Additionally, PSD's strategy is quite clear. It aims to dismiss the government through a vote of no confidence, using AUR, and after removing Bolojan, will attempt to form a new parliamentary majority with PNL and UDMR, probably also with USR, leaving George Simion out in the cold.
Therefore, the skepticism in George Simion's statements needs to be understood.
"Neither PSD nor PNL are serious parties and do not have... serious leadership. We are not convinced that PSD will submit a motion of no confidence...", stated the AUR leader, signaling that discussions for a possible association with PSD will be lengthy and complicated due to the suspicions lingering between the two formations.
George Simion also faces a problem. He does not know how the AUR electorate will react in the event of an alliance with PSD.
Mămăligă and Miorița
"Bolojan, who lectures everyone on ethics, went out to recruit parliamentarians. I assure you, and I told the president as well, that we also do not sit idly by like in Miorița, because we did not learn politics at a nunnery school. We will materialize certain discussions in the coming period...", stated Sorin Grindeanu in the PSD meeting, according to political sources.
The position expressed by the social-democratic leader shows, on one hand, fear of the prime minister's actions, who is trying to gain support in Parliament after PSD's departure, and on the other hand, the fact that he is now obliged to move quickly and dismiss the government. Otherwise, the situation in PSD will become dramatic.
"When others are mămăligă, we must show that we have blood in our veins...", stated in the same BPN meeting Olguța Vasilescu.
Careful analysis of the two statements indicates that the PSD leaders did not have a clear plan after exiting the coalition. Most likely, they expected President Nicușor Dan to force Ilie Bolojan to resign to save the government, but this did not happen.
Sorin Grindeanu says that discussions regarding the vote on a motion of no confidence have not yet begun, and Olguța Vasilescu is mobilizing the PSD leadership, urging them to behave courageously and go all the way.
The transcripts of the discussions in the PSD meeting do not show that the party leaders have a vision and a leader who knows what to do and, especially, what to do next.
An Arbiter Player
Since yesterday, a race against the clock has started between PNL-USR and PSD to form a new parliamentary majority. Mathematically, the social democrats, as they have the largest number of parliamentarians (131), have the first chance.
However, it should not be forgotten that the liberals and the USR together have 132 parliamentarians, and the referee of this race, one who can intervene in the game, is Nicușor Dan, who mainly became president with the votes of those who want Ilie Bolojan as prime minister.
Most likely, the game will be won by those who have prepared in advance for the confrontation. They have worked behind the scenes and obtained individual support or support from small groups of parliamentarians detached from extremist formations.
It should also be noted, based on past experiences, that it is practically impossible for the country's president not to be able to form a parliamentary majority to support the prime minister he desires or wants to dismiss. Ion Iliescu, Emil Constantinescu, Traian Băsescu, and Klaus Iohannis have done it. It is hard to believe that Nicușor Dan will not succeed in this, given that he is in his first term and his support remains high.