As NATO leaders gather in Ankara on Tuesday, one of the most important questions is not only what decisions the Alliance will make, but also what Vladimir Putin’s next move will be.
After over four years of war, Russia is facing economic problems, increasingly frequent attacks on its own territory, and a front line that is advancing much slower than the Kremlin had hoped. In this context, the question arises whether the Russian leader will attempt to escalate the conflict not only against Ukraine, but also through provocations against NATO.
An analysis published by CNN shows that Putin is likely in his most vulnerable position since the beginning of the invasion and must choose between continuing a war that does not bring him victory and risking a broader confrontation with the West.
A Weaker Russia Than in 2022
According to the analysis, today's Russia is very different from the one that invaded Ukraine in February 2022.
The economy is increasingly feeling the costs of the war, Russian refineries are constantly being hit by Ukrainian drones, Moscow is tapping into financial reserves to sustain the military effort, and even recruiting from prisons to cover the shortage of soldiers on the front lines.
At the same time, the Kremlin has come to rely on support from China, North Korea, and Iran, and the anti-aircraft defense is concentrated even around the Russian capital.
Furthermore, Ukraine is increasingly targeting infrastructure within Russia, causing disruptions in gas supply and large-scale fires.
But Russia Is Prepared for a Long War
On the other hand, CNN highlights that Moscow has nearly adapted its entire society to a wartime economy.
Factories are constantly producing military equipment, state television is dominated by propaganda, and the conflict has become part of Russians' daily lives in a way not seen in NATO countries.
While the Alliance still debates the level of future defense spending, Russia allocates approximately 7% of its GDP and possibly nearly half of the state budget to fund the war.
In this context, a broader conflict with NATO could serve the Kremlin's propaganda, allowing Putin to portray the war as an existential confrontation with the West, not just an invasion stagnating in Ukraine.
Fears of New Challenges Against NATO
The analysis notes that in Western capitals, there are persistent fears of possible provocative actions by Russia against some NATO member states.
Warnings are mentioned that Poland could become the target of hybrid or drone attacks, the appearance of Russian military near the Estonian border, temporary closure of airports in Denmark due to unidentified drones, and Norway's concerns about Russia's activity in the Svalbard archipelago.
CNN also mentions Moscow's decision to grant Russian passports to residents of the separatist region of Transnistria, raising the question of whether this could represent the beginning of a broader strategy.
The author emphasizes, however, that all these developments must be viewed in the context of the real limitations facing Russia.
The Front Advances Slowly, and Victories Are Harder to Demonstrate
According to the analysis, the pace of the Russian offensive has significantly slowed down.
Large-scale aerial attacks on Kyiv have occurred, for weeks, at intervals of approximately 10-15 days, suggesting that Russia has limitations in terms of ammunition production or identifying new targets.
CNN also recalls the recent episode where the Russian Ministry of Defense claimed that the army had taken control of the city of Kostiantynivka in the Donetsk region, a claim immediately rejected by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, who invited Putin to meet there for peace negotiations.
Similarly, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) believes that such announcements are more aimed at convincing the American administration that Russia continues to advance and influence potential diplomatic negotiations.
Nuclear Weapons Remain an Unlikely Option
Nick Paton Walsh, the author of the CNN analysis, considers it unlikely that Moscow would resort to nuclear weapons to pressure NATO.
Such a step would provoke harsh reactions not only from the United States but also from China and would involve risks that are hard to control for the Kremlin.
Instead, it is more likely that Russia will continue the tactics of the past decade: hybrid operations, sabotage, intimidation, and actions that test the patience limits of the West without triggering direct military conflict.
In this regard, the analysis recalls the Novichok nerve agent attack in Salisbury, suspicious activities of Russian ships near submarine cables, and repeated allegations of interference in Western electoral processes.
Putin's Stakes Are Time
The CNN analysis concludes that Vladimir Putin's main advantage remains time. Unlike Western leaders, he is not constrained by electoral cycles and can afford to wait for changes in governments, shifts in political priorities, and the diminishing technological advantage of Ukraine.
In the author's opinion, the Kremlin leader will avoid, for now, a direct confrontation with NATO, aware that such escalation could hasten the end of the regime.