The war of President Donald Trump against Iran is pushing the limits of American aircraft carriers and leaving the western Pacific without one of the main US warships, as China shows increasing signs of aggression.
The USS George Washington is leaving the Pacific and is expected to replace the USS Abraham Lincoln in the Middle East, amid growing concerns about mental health and supply issues aboard the long-deployed aircraft carrier, writes Associated Press.
– Crisis aboard the USS Abraham Lincoln. Several sailors attempted to jump overboard
The time spent at sea by the Lincoln has been extended beyond the original return date in May to support operations against Iran.
The absence of an American carrier in the Pacific may be short-lived if the US Navy sends another one in the next two months. However, analysts say it shows how much some American sailors are being exhausted by operations against Iran without a clear end date, while the Trump administration further reduces its involvement in the Asia-Pacific region and focuses attention on the Western Hemisphere.
„The administration says that the Pacific should be the most important area after the Western Hemisphere,” said Greg Poling, director of the Southeast Asia Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. Instead, the US is „doing exactly the opposite” of the previously stated goal of withdrawing from the Middle East.
American allies in the Pacific are unsettled by the unpredictability of the Republican administration, Poling said, while Beijing „is very pleased with diverting US attention and frustrating American allies and partners.”
### China could benefit from the absence of the American aircraft carrier
Beijing considers the US military presence in the region a threat to China’s rise and an obstacle to its ambition to take over Taiwan, the autonomous island it claims as part of its territory. However, the United States has argued that the Pacific region is too economically important to be lost.
No one expects China to invade Taiwan just because an American carrier has left the region. However, its absence gives China a new opportunity to demonstrate its strength, said Bryan Clark, a former US Navy member and defense analyst at the Hudson Institute.
„They use this as part of the narrative trying to show the Philippines, Japan, Indonesia, and other countries that the US is no longer the dominant force in the Western Pacific. They simply prefer the countries in the region to conclude that China is the greater power and that the US is no longer capable of guaranteeing their security,” Clark said.
China conducted naval exercises this week with Indonesia and recently showed aggression towards Japan and the Philippines, two important US allies with territorial disputes with Beijing.
China conducted military exercises this month near Scarborough Reef in the South China Sea. Both China and the Philippines claim this territory. Last month, a Chinese destroyer equipped with guided missiles conducted a live-fire exercise off Okinotori Island, Japan’s southernmost island.
Admiral Frank Bradley, head of the US Special Operations Command, tried to assure regional allies of Washington’s commitment. On Thursday, he was in Manila, where he told Filipino counterparts that US special operations forces are ready to increase joint exercises to strengthen the alliance between the two countries. He is also expected to travel to Japan.
„We have the ability to project US force anywhere in the world,” Bradley told the Associated Press. „And when the threat from the Middle East region is managed, we will redeploy and reorient and be able to project this force wherever needed.”
„I also have full confidence in the ability of the Armed Forces of the Philippines to protect their sovereignty here and that we will remain closely alongside them,” he said.
Evan Sankey, a policy analyst at the Cato Institute specializing in US-China policy, said that aircraft carriers provide American allies with a psychological guarantee. Their absence from the region, he said, „emphasizes the general feeling that the US is distracted by events in the Middle East.”
### Trump relied on aircraft carriers for military operations
Trump heavily relied on aircraft carriers to support military operations during his second term. For example, the USS Gerald R. Ford returned home in mid-May after an 11-month mission – the longest since the Vietnam War – during which it supported US operations against Iran and the capture of former Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro.
The carrier suffered a fire in a laundry space, forcing it to return to the Mediterranean for repairs and leaving hundreds of sailors without sleeping quarters. Meanwhile, Lincoln spent a record uninterrupted time at sea – over 240 days. Democratic legislators have called for investigations and greater transparency regarding conditions aboard the ship.
Warships and their crews can only withstand a certain amount of strain, said Robert Farley, a professor of national security and diplomacy at the University of Kentucky who frequently writes about aircraft carriers.
„People don’t get enough rest. It’s psychologically exhausting. And rest and recovery are part of maintaining crew health,” Farley said.
Clark of the Hudson Institute said that pressure on the US aircraft carrier fleet stems from a lack of readiness and planning for war with Iran.
„If we were going to mobilize forces for such a conflict and anticipated it might last so long, we could have made some changes to the carrier schedule to ensure that more of them would be available,” Clark said.
Clark noted that the US Navy has 11 aircraft carriers and typically deploys two or three simultaneously. However, it could soon reach four, if the USS Theodore Roosevelt departs from San Diego to the Middle East, allowing the Washington to return to the Pacific.
But these massive warships will need maintenance work, which is likely to cause a bottleneck at the only two American shipyards capable of performing aircraft carrier work.
„We will accumulate maintenance debt that will need to be paid off in the coming years,” Clark said. „We will probably have a reduced presence of aircraft carriers compared to previous years, as carriers will be queuing up for the shipyard.”
### Questions arise about the utility of aircraft carriers in modern warfare
Michael Swaine, senior researcher in the East Asia Program at the Quincy Institute, questions the future need for aircraft carriers as warfare rapidly changes.
Aircraft carriers can be more easily targeted with drones and missiles, especially by an adversary like China, Swaine said, while smaller ships and submarines can be just as effective in hitting targets as fighter planes taking off from an aircraft carrier.
Senior US Navy officials have indicated they want to reduce the massive dependence on aircraft carriers. Admiral Daryl Caudle, chief of naval operations, told the Associated Press in February that he wants to convince commanders to use smaller and newer ships, as well as other military means, instead of constantly relying on huge aircraft carriers.