When Marco Rubio suggested that the world should consider new maritime routes to bypass the Strait of Hormuz, it is unlikely that he had in mind the northern maritime route through the Arctic.
And yet, in recent months, the promises of this 5,500 km route – cutting through icy seas with nuclear-powered icebreakers and illuminated by a sun that never sets below the Arctic horizon – have become increasingly evident.
Japan, South Korea, and India have expressed interest in sending goods via the Northern Sea Route (NSR), but it is China that has established the first regular transport, with the maritime transport company Sea Legend launching a periodic service in recent days, according to The Guardian.
The NSR, which crosses the Arctic Polar Circle along Russia’s northern coast, is navigable only in the warmer months, but this period has been extended due to the reduction of summer sea ice. For some ships, the route can cut more than half the time needed to reach Europe from China, but the advantages come with serious environmental and political risks that could outweigh the benefits.
After a single pilot trip in 2025, Sea Legend launched a regular container transport service on the Arctic route. The direct journey from Ningbo-Zhoushan to Felixstowe, UK, takes only 18 days – according to Li – compared to over 40 days via the Suez Canal.
Experts say the route is ideal for temperature-sensitive goods, including electric vehicles, lithium batteries, and solar products – categories in which China has become a dominant global exporter.
As the only regular commercial freight transport service on this route, Sea Legend will test whether Beijing’s long-standing Arctic ambitions can be transformed into a viable and regular commercial route between China and Europe.
Chinese President Xi Jinping publicly called for China and Russia to develop Arctic maritime routes and build a „Polar Silk Road” in 2017. Initially wary of China’s growing presence in the Arctic, Russia, which controls a large part of the Northern Sea Route, has become increasingly dependent on Beijing in the far north after the large-scale invasion of Ukraine, offering China greater influence and access.
Russia’s state nuclear company, Rosatom, issues navigation permits and oversees transport along the route, also providing the necessary nuclear-powered icebreakers to escort most vessels.
Sea Legend claims that the Arctic route will reduce emissions by about half due to the shorter navigation time between China and Europe, but according to experts, the inherent environmental risks of this journey could easily negate any emission savings.
Some maritime companies have been criticized for operating vessels using heavy fuel oil (HFO), a fuel banned in the Arctic from 2024.
According to a 2025 report by the Bellona Environmental Foundation, fuel spills pose huge dangers in the Arctic as HFO is more viscous than other types of fuel, making it difficult to clean up. Additionally, oil breaks down more slowly at low temperatures and is nearly impossible to remove once trapped in ice.
The report argues that Russia is completely unprepared to handle such a catastrophe if it were to occur. The vast distances of the NSR – combined with the region’s isolation – mean that specialized intervention teams could take weeks to reach the site of a spill.
„Due to the region’s isolation and lack of logistical support, the likelihood of prolonged mechanical failure and, consequently, a ship’s failure is much higher. This presents the risk of an oil spill in a fragile ecosystem,” says Captain Nitin Chopra, a senior maritime risk consultant in Asia at Allianz.
Bellona also highlights the danger of black carbon – one of the byproducts of burning HFO – which it calls „one of the most powerful absorbers of solar radiation.” Black carbon can reduce the reflectivity of the Arctic region, causing it to absorb more sunlight and retain heat, exacerbating global warming.
**Frozen Highway for the „Shadow Fleet”**
Li Xiaobin, Sea Legend’s operational director, stated this month that the crisis in the Middle East has revealed the vulnerability of the Suez Canal and the Strait of Hormuz to regional disruptions, increasing the need to develop alternative commercial routes between China and Europe.
Russian President Vladimir Putin has made similar statements. Moscow would like to redraw the map of global trade, but its control over the NSR – which largely lies within Russia’s exclusive economic zone – is considered too risky by many operators.
International sanctions imposed on Russia after the invasion of Ukraine could complicate rescue operations if a ship encounters problems and needs assistance, warned insurer Allianz Commercial in its analysis of maritime safety and transport for 2026.
Experts say that, for now, much of the traffic on the NSR is occupied by Moscow’s „shadow fleet”: tankers that often operate without insurance or adequate regulatory oversight and make ad-hoc trips to avoid sanctions on Russian oil.
„In 2025, there were a hundred such vessels under international sanctions – nearly a third of the cargo ships sailing on this route,” wrote Ksenia Vakhrusheva of Bellona in a report last year. In 2026, reports suggest that the shipments made by the shadow fleet through the NSR are happening even faster, due to milder summer conditions facilitating navigation.
„In the current conditions of climate change, we may see a longer period of the year when the Northern Sea Route will be open for commercial transport,” says Vinh Thai, a professor of logistics and supply chain management at RMIT University, adding that there is evidence that this is already happening.
A Russian LNG carrier was able to start an early crossing of the route in May, thanks to the reduction of summer sea ice. In the past week, maritime traffic observers have identified an unprecedented convoy of Russian tankers following an unusual northern route through the NSR. The fleet of ships, estimated to carry around 8 million barrels of oil, passed within less than 800 km of the North Pole.
Despite Russia’s bold – perhaps even reckless – efforts to promote the NSR as a viable alternative for international maritime transport, experts say that, for now, the economic calculations do not support it. Safety issues, high operating costs, short navigation season, and risks associated with sanctions are likely to continue limiting maritime transport in the Arctic.
Therefore, any oil spill could represent both an „ecological and economic disaster,” says Thai. „Not just for Russia, but also for the surrounding area.
„So, can the Northern Sea Route be used as a replacement for the Strait of Hormuz and the Suez Canal? The short answer is no, at least not at this time.”