Straight from Washington, Nicolae Ciucă announced his presidential candidacy in an interview for Antena 3. The significance of the place where the declaration was made is quite transparent. It seems intended to imbue the decision and candidacy itself with a certain symbolism.
The first is the association with the „High Gate” of the Western world, in whose blessing many Romanians believe. In reality, the simple fact that Mr. Ciucă went to Washington means nothing. There have been other candidates who then lost. But what matters is the perception.
Furthermore, the association with the NATO summit refers to the national security implications that General Ciucă has, who, indeed, seemed in his element in this area with military connotations.
Also, the association with the NATO summit tries to capture some of the aura of the candidate everyone fears, Mircea Geoană. Especially since he is not yet "free of contract" to make the official announcement of his candidacy and currently only resorts to increasingly pressing suggestions.
And, of course, the fact that the announcement comes after accompanying Mr. Iohannis suggests a blessing from the incumbent president, which is very important for the PNL.
And so we come to the moment of the announcement. Mr. Ciucă announced his candidacy before obtaining the formal support of the party, even specifying on Antena3 that he plans to go through the branches to gain support.
He did this to put an end to persistent rumors coming from the liberal camp and beyond, suggesting a change of plans, meaning the designation of another candidate, because despite the immense image campaign dedicated to Mr. Ciucă, he is not gaining ground in the polls.
We have already written about the political calculation on which Mr. Ciucă and those who strongly support this candidacy rely: parties with a 30% political vote cannot help but send their candidates to the second round.
Why is it simplistic? The electorate is not as disciplined as it was in the '90s or 2000s, and the analysis of the vote on June 9 shows that many of those who voted for the PNL and PSD in local elections went in different directions in the European elections.
Mr. Ciucă may lose a significant number of votes towards Mircea Geoană and Elena Lasconi.
However, many internal balances of the liberals depend on Nicolae Ciucă. A change of candidate and leadership in the PNL would push a party divided into factions and tribes into a fierce power struggle in an election year, especially since there is currently no strong leader emerging as a replacement and recovery solution.
Of course, the correct solution would be Ilie Bolojan, but there are enough liberals who do not desire his rigorous and somewhat militaristic style with which he succeeded in administration, but which deeply displeases the political scene in Dâmbovița, not just the liberals.
In addition, President Iohannis, with no real chance of obtaining another European position, hopes to somehow remain, at least indirectly, at the top of power in Romania.
That he is by no means an electoral argument for Mr. Ciucă, on the contrary, he is a stumbling block, I fear Mr. Iohannis cannot understand.
It is already being suggested, starting from what seemed like an irony from Mr. Ciolacu, that Mr. Iohannis is aiming for the position of prime minister after the elections, in a tandem with Nicolae Ciucă.
There is a reason why this scenario is unrealistic: it is unlikely that Mr. Iohannis would aim for a position that involves a lot of work and little free time. He is too lazy to want to be prime minister.
With Mr. Ciucă's announcement and the increasingly transparent messages from Mr. Geoană, the gallery of relevant candidates is almost complete. The only one missing is the PSD candidate, who will be formalized at the party's congress on August 24.
It remains to be seen if by then Mr. Ciolacu will manage to find a solution to escape the extremely risky candidacy predicament.