On the 1545th day of war, the Russian air defense was once again activated following the most extensive Ukrainian attack on Moscow in the past year, launched on Saturday night. Several drones were shot down in the Rostov region, including in the port city of Taganrog, located on the Sea of Azov.
However, what stands out is a shift in the balance of power in the war. Ukraine’s long-range aerial attacks are becoming increasingly effective, and Russia is failing to defend itself. President Volodymyr Zelensky mentioned that Ukraine’s long-term measures are already surpassing the Kremlin’s efforts to protect Moscow from attacks.
Military analysts claim that Ukrainian drones managed to penetrate three out of the four layers of Moscow's air defense system. This is despite the fact that the capital and the surrounding region are considered the most protected airspace in Russia after Putin's residence in Valdai.
Just last week, the air defense system shot down over 3,000 Ukrainian drones over Russia and the occupied territories.
The series of Ukrainian attacks over the weekend proved that Russia is unable to efficiently defend Moscow, a weakness that has generated significant frustration in the ultra-nationalist Russian information space. Military bloggers are dissatisfied with the inefficiency of the air defense and have complained about Ukraine's increasing attack capabilities, as reported by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
On the other hand, Russian forces launched a drone and missile attack on Ukraine during the night. The main targets were the city of Dnipro and the Dnipropetrovsk region. Additionally, the regions of Odesa, Chernihiv, and Zaporizhzhia were bombed.
However, the Russians also attacked a Chinese commercial ship in the Black Sea. The incident occurred shortly before the two-day visit that Vladimir Putin will begin in China on Tuesday.
Ukraine's Strikes
- Drones downed in Rostov - The Russian air defense was once again activated following the most extensive Ukrainian attack on Moscow in the past year, launched on Saturday night. Russian authorities reported that several drones were shot down overnight in the Rostov region, including in the port city of Taganrog located on the Sea of Azov. The information was confirmed by regional governor Yuri Sliusar.
- Zelensky announces a change - Volodymyr Zelensky welcomed the Ukrainian attacks on Moscow on Saturday night and mentioned that these are part of a broader shift in the balance of power in favor of Kyiv. Zelensky called the strikes "a completely correct response" to Russia's continuous attacks on Ukrainian cities. "Many (Western) partners are now signaling that they see what is happening and how everything has changed - both in the attitude towards this war and in the accessibility of Russian targets on Russian territory," Zelensky stated. He added that the strikes on Moscow have served as a significant demonstration of Ukraine's long-term capabilities, considering the Kremlin's efforts to protect the Russian capital.
- Ukrainian drones breach Moscow's defense ring - Military analysts claim that Ukrainian drones managed to penetrate three out of the four layers of Moscow's air defense system, according to the DroneBomber+ platform cited by Nexta. Moscow and the surrounding region are considered the most protected airspace in Russia after Putin's residence in Valdai. Before the May 9 parade, additional air defense systems from across the country were moved to the Moscow region. According to Kyiv Independent, the Russian air defense system shot down 3,124 Ukrainian drones last week, reported RIA Novosti on Sunday, citing data from the Russian Ministry of Defense.
- Russian ultra-nationalists are frustrated - The series of attacks over the weekend proved that Russia is unable to efficiently defend Moscow, a weakness that has generated significant discontent in the ultra-nationalist Russian information space. The Kremlin's response was discreet and likely aimed at minimizing the impact of the attacks, unlike the harsh responses from bloggers, as shown by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW). Russian ultra-nationalist military bloggers mentioned the inefficiency of the Russian air defense and complained about Ukraine's increasing attack capabilities. They called for the establishment of a multi-tiered and unified air defense network to counter drones over a wide area of land around the city of Moscow, as well as an early warning system, showing that Ukrainian forces are expanding the scope and intensity of long-distance attacks, as noted by ISW.
Russia's Attacks
- Russians attacked a Chinese ship in the Black Sea - The Russian army attacked a Chinese commercial ship in the Black Sea, as announced by the spokesperson for the Ukrainian naval forces, Dmitry Pletenetsky, cited by Nexta. The vessel was in Ukrainian territorial waters. The source did not mention any casualties or damages. The incident occurred shortly before the two-day visit that Vladimir Putin will begin in China on Tuesday.
- Attacks in four regions - Russian forces launched a drone and missile attack on Ukraine during the night. The main targets of the attack were the city of Dnipro and the Dnipropetrovsk region. Additionally, the regions of Odesa, Chernihiv, and Zaporizhzhia were bombed, as reported by Ukrainska Pravda. In Odesa, the main Ukrainian port on the Black Sea, drones hit several blocks, a school, and a kindergarten. An 11-year-old boy and a man were injured. In the Dnipropetrovsk region in southeastern Ukraine, at least 26 people were injured, including a 10-year-old child. Additionally, in the southeastern Zaporizhzhia region, three people were injured, and the attacks in the southern Herson region killed one person and injured nine, as communicated on Telegram by regional governor Oleksandr Prokudin.
- Over 500 targets destroyed - Russian forces launched 14 ballistic missiles, 8 cruise missiles, and 524 drones during the night. By local time 8:30, 507 targets had been neutralized – four missiles and 503 drones, as communicated by the Ukrainian Air Forces in the morning.
Other Relevant Information
- Russia announces no signal from Kiev for negotiations - So far, Moscow has not received any signal from Kiev regarding readiness for a new round of negotiations, stated Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Galuzin to Izvestia. Referring to the conditions for successful negotiations, Galuzin argued that Zelensky will need to order the Ukrainian armed forces to cease fire and withdraw troops from Donbas and Russian regions. "Only then will it be possible to negotiate the specific parameters of a truly comprehensive, fair, and durable peace. It will be a difficult negotiation process, but we are prepared for it," the diplomat affirmed.
- Zelensky: EU must be at the negotiation table - "We all share the opinion that Europe must be involved in negotiations" with Russia, within the framework of American mediation, Volodymyr Zelensky wrote on Telegram on Sunday after a phone call with European Council President Antonio Costa. "It is important for it to have a strong voice and presence in this process, and it is necessary to establish who will represent it," Zelensky added. Although providing the majority of financial and material aid to Ukraine, the EU has been excluded from negotiations that are at an impasse, noted Reuters. Some member states see this as an opportunity to increase their involvement, but others, such as Estonia, are hostile to this. "It is not the time to discuss or negotiate. It is time to put pressure on Russia. We are not very excited about everyone rushing to Moscow to start talks, as Russia is weakened. It is not the right time," stated Estonian Foreign Minister Margus Tsahkna.
- Chisinau summoned the Russian ambassador - Oleg Ozerov, the designated Russian ambassador, was summoned to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Moldova this morning. He was handed a protest note regarding the drone that crossed from North to South through Moldovan airspace, as reported by deschide.md.
- Pro-Russian smuggling network dismantled in Germany - German authorities have dismantled an extensive smuggling network to Russia, suspected of supplying the Russian military industry with European technology, in violation of sanctions imposed on Moscow following the invasion of Ukraine. According to documents analyzed by Politico and Bild, the operation involved the export of dual-use products, electronic components, microcontrollers, sensors, bearings, oscilloscopes, and other technological equipment that could be used for both civilian and military purposes. Investigators estimate that the network carried out approximately 16,000 shipments, with a total value exceeding 30 million euros. Some equipment even reached Russian institutes involved in the nuclear weapons program.