A backup plan for Europe to be able to defend itself using NATO’s existing military structures in the event of the US exiting the alliance is gaining ground after receiving Germany’s support. Berlin has been a long-term opponent of such an approach.
Discussions in Europe have intensified regarding a contingency plan designed for the EU to be able to defend itself using NATO’s existing military structures in the event of a US withdrawal from the alliance, reports Wall Street Journal.
According to WSJ sources, the plan is informally promoted during backstage discussions and working dinners and does not aim to create competition for the current alliance.
Why Germany Changed Its Mind
The key factor that stimulated discussions was Germany's change of position. Until now, Berlin has opposed the idea promoted by France of greater autonomy in European defense and preferred to consider the United States as the main security guarantor. However, under the leadership of Friedrich Merz, who became chancellor in May 2025, Germany began to doubt the reliability of the United States as an ally, the newspaper writes.
According to sources cited by WSJ, Merz began to reconsider his position after concluding that Trump was ready to withdraw support for Ukraine. He is concerned that the White House leader could create confusion between victim and aggressor in war and that US policy within NATO no longer had clear values. Despite this, the German leader did not want to publicly question the alliance, as it would have been dangerous, sources said.
What Europeans Want and the Challenges Ahead
Some officials working on EU contingency plans call this project a "European NATO." They aim to involve more Europeans in command roles and personnel within the alliance and supplement American military resources with their own.
However, questions persist about several key aspects of who will manage:
- NATO's air defense and anti-missile systems
- Force transport corridors to Poland and the Baltic states,
- Logistics and large-scale regional exercises in the event of a US military withdrawal.
Officials are also trying to maintain the reliability of the nuclear shield, even if the US withdraws its troops from Europe.
The reintroduction of military recruitment is another essential aspect for the success of the plan, sources said.
Officials involved also aim to accelerate European production of vital equipment in areas where Europe lags behind the US, including antisubmarine, space and reconnaissance capabilities, air refueling, and air mobility.
WSJ notes that implementing these plans will be challenging. The position of Supreme Allied Commander Europe has traditionally been held by a US representative, and Washington does not intend to give up this position.
There is also a major gap in information and nuclear deterrence. European officials say that no troop reorganization can quickly replace the American satellite, surveillance, and missile warning systems that form the backbone of NATO's credibility.
Trump Puts Europeans on Guard
Relations between the US and Europe within NATO have entered a crisis after Donald Trump returned to the White House for a second term. One of the major causes of tension was Greenland, which Trump threatened to annex. Following this tense moment, discussions about a backup plan in Europe have accelerated, writes Wall Street Journal.
Trump has been heavily criticized by European countries, also due to the war with Iran. Europe did not join the military action, while some countries refused to allow the US to use their bases for military aircraft heading to bomb Iran.
The US President has repeatedly stated that NATO members "have not helped" America and expressed his disappointment with the alliance. He labeled European allies as "cowards" and called NATO "a paper tiger", adding, "And Putin knows that."
Earlier this month, Trump threatened that the US would leave NATO due to allies' refusal to support his campaign in Iran. Any withdrawal from the alliance would require approval from the US Congress, but the president could still move troops or assets from Europe or withdraw support, using his authority as Supreme Commander.
Immediately after Trump's threat, Finnish President Alexander Stubb, one of the leaders involved in the "European NATO" plan, called the US president to inform him of Europe's intention to strengthen its own defense. "The basic message to our American friends is that after all these decades, it is time for Europe to take more responsibility for its own security and defense," Stubb said.