The successive heatwaves this summer have been accompanied by a sharp increase in mortality across Europe. Preliminary data indicates at least 35,000 deaths above the expected level, but the final toll could be much higher.
The most affected were the elderly, especially those over 75 years old. Extreme temperatures can cause heatstroke and dehydration, but can also worsen cardiovascular, respiratory, or renal conditions.
The estimate presented by The Guardian is based on preliminary data published by the European monitoring system EuroMOMO and health authorities from several countries.
This does not mean that in all of the 35,000 cases, heat was established as the direct cause of death. It refers to "excess" deaths: the number of people who died in addition to what is normally recorded during the same period of the year.
Because this increase coincided with the heatwaves and no other major factors have been identified to explain it, experts believe that a significant portion of the deaths are related to extreme temperatures.
Two weeks with unusually high mortality
EuroMOMO data shows that the last week of June was the most severe this summer, with nearly 16,000 deaths above normal levels. In the first week of July, another approximately 8,000 were recorded.
These two periods coincided with one of the most intense heatwaves that swept across Europe. Temperatures broke records, schools were closed in some regions, transport was disrupted, and energy systems were under pressure.
EuroMOMO estimates are based on official statistics provided by 27 European countries and regions. Recent data is adjusted as authorities receive and process new death certificates, so the toll may change.
In addition, the platform does not publicly provide a breakdown of deaths for each country. For this reason, national comparisons are based on separate reports, covering different periods and using slightly different methods.
Germany and France, the most deaths reported
Germany recorded approximately 14,000 deaths associated with heatwaves until August 9, according to the Robert Koch Institute. It is the highest toll reported since the beginning of this monitoring in 2016. Most of the victims were over 75 years old.
In France, health authorities reported around 7,300 deaths above expected levels between the end of May and July 22. Only between June 17 and July 2, 5,764 excess deaths were recorded, and another 1,243 were reported in the period from July 3 to 22. Approximately three-quarters of the people in the second period were at least 75 years old.
The French toll does not yet include the full effects of the prolonged heatwave at the end of July and beginning of August.
Spain reported nearly 4,500 deaths attributed to heat between June 1 and August 19, the highest level for this period since 2022. July was, along with July 2022, the hottest recorded in mainland Spain since the beginning of measurements in 1961.
In England, estimates indicate 2,877 deaths associated with heat only during the waves in May and June. The figure is already close to the record of 2,985 deaths for the entire summer of 2022, and authorities warn that the toll for 2026 will be higher after including other heatwave episodes.
Belgium recorded approximately 2,570 deaths above normal levels between June 18 and July 17. The data is set to be updated in September and will include the extreme heat from July 25 to August 16.
In the Netherlands, around 970 excess deaths were recorded between June 22 and July 5. Austria reported 396 deaths associated with the heat in June, an unprecedented level for this month in available statistics since 2017, and Portugal had over 600 excess deaths between mid-June and the end of July.
The real toll will only be known in a few months
The numbers are provisional and cannot be perfectly added up or compared, as the analyzed periods and methods used differ from country to country. Some authorities report all deaths above the normal statistical level, while others estimate only cases directly associated with high temperatures.
Comprehensive evaluations are usually carried out a few months after the end of summer. Only then can epidemiologists separate the effect of heat from other factors and more accurately calculate the number of victims.
Scientists warn that climate change caused by human activity is making heatwaves more frequent, longer, and more intense. Europe is the continent warming the fastest, and its aging population is particularly vulnerable to extreme temperatures.
G.P.