The truth is that, for Putin, it was never just about Ukraine.
The US now understands this, and this shift is both good news for Europe and a cause for deep concern, according to an analysis by Politico.
The United States wants Europe to participate in the next round of negotiations with Russia and Ukraine, believing that a peace agreement cannot be reached without European involvement. Jared Kushner, Donald Trump's emissary, announced that he will try to obtain Vladimir Putin's agreement for their presence at the negotiating table, where the stakes will no longer be just Ukrainian territory but also Russia's relationship with NATO and the future security architecture of the continent.
Meanwhile, the negotiations in Abu Dhabi ended without major progress, the only announced outcome being a possible large-scale prisoner exchange, which is still awaiting Kremlin approval.
There is no trust between the two sides
When Jared Kushner entered the briefing room to announce the results of the two days of peace negotiations between Russia and Ukraine, he did not try to hide how difficult the discussions had been.
“The reality is that, at this moment, there is no trust between the two sides. There were some pretty tough discussions,” said Donald Trump's son-in-law and trusted emissary during a press conference held after the negotiations.
The two delegations, one led by a Kremlin advisor and the other by the head of Ukraine's military intelligence service, discussed all the difficult topics, including the most complicated one: the fate of the disputed territories. According to participants in the talks, both sides firmly defended their own objectives.
The atmosphere cooled from the first to the second day. On Tuesday, after negotiations lasting four and a half hours, officials on site in Abu Dhabi familiar with the discussions described them as “constructive.” On Wednesday, when the meeting ended after only two hours, the most favorable characterization they could offer was “neutral.”
In reality, few members of the Ukrainian delegation ever believed that the resumption of direct negotiations this week would bring any major change.
The most important announcement concerned a prisoner exchange, which would be the largest since the beginning of the war. However, even regarding this agreement, the final figures agreed upon by the two sides have not been announced.
Nevertheless, beyond the reserved statements, the meeting represented an important moment in the interrupted and resumed efforts to find a peace solution after nearly 5 years of war.
Here is what you need to know about the status of the negotiations.
What did they discuss?
Everything. According to Kushner, in the two days there was no important topic that was not addressed. The issue of territories will obviously be “the most difficult” to resolve.
According to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenski, the negotiators from Kiev achieved an important victory on the first day, managing to convince the Americans to accept their assessment of the frontline situation — the Ukrainian territory occupied by Russia is much smaller than Moscow claims.
It is hard to imagine a quick resolution of territorial claims, although American officials say in private discussions that both sides have shown some flexibility.
Zelenski continues to insist, and American mediators seem to agree, that issues related to the fate of Ukrainian territories can only be discussed at the leaders' level (that is, the Ukrainian and Russian presidents). Such a meeting is still very far off.
“It is obvious that there is not much trust or sympathy between the leaders,” Kushner said.
What did they agree on?
A large prisoner exchange, which could be the biggest since the start of the large-scale invasion in 2022. However, this agreement is not finalized either. Kushner stated that it will depend on Vladimir Putin's approval and that he will try to obtain this approval on Thursday during a visit to Moscow.
“One of the positive aspects was that we agreed to organize the largest humanitarian prisoner release. We will finalize the numbers tomorrow (Thursday - ed.),” Kushner said.
He announced that he will travel together with Steve Witkoff, Trump's other emissary, “to Moscow tomorrow, to meet with President Putin, to discuss what was discussed today and to try to make more progress on some of the issues.”
The Ukrainian representatives at the talks stated that the “strict instructions” received from Moscow limited the Russians' room for maneuver regarding the conclusion of agreements, making the negotiations over these two days difficult.
What’s next?
The visit to Moscow is essential.
Kushner said that another major objective of the discussions with Putin will be to obtain his agreement for Europeans to participate in the next round of negotiations.
“I believe, and we hope, that tomorrow in Moscow, Steve and I will succeed, and President Putin will give his consent for this to happen. I think that if he agrees, we will be able to make much more progress,” Kushner said.
Subsequently, the American emissaries intend to go to Dublin, where they will meet face-to-face with Zelenski and try to advance the negotiations.
The Ukrainians want to set a new date to continue discussions, as they hope to reach an agreement before the end of the year. Meanwhile, Russia is intensifying attacks on Ukraine’s electrical grids and energy infrastructure, and a new winter is approaching.
The big change
Probably the most important change in recent days has occurred in the attitude of the United States.
After all, the negotiations were never just a matter between Russia and Ukraine. Since Donald Trump returned to power almost two years ago, Kiev and Brussels have tried to convince him to pay more attention to their arguments. For Ukraine's European allies, these persuasion efforts seem to have borne fruit.
Kushner and Witkoff now want European officials to participate in the next round of negotiations, so they can discuss one of Vladimir Putin's fundamental concerns: relations with NATO and the future European security system.
“We need Europeans at the negotiating table. I have told President Putin directly, several times, and his team, that the only way to reach an agreement is to have them alongside us. And I think they are receptive to this idea,” Kushner said.
Ukrainian negotiators stated that Russia's attitude only began to relax and become more open to dialogue after the United States agreed to discuss post-war arrangements for both sides.
The American attitude towards Ukraine has also changed. Just a few weeks ago, Trump angrily demanded Zelenski be replaced, following a conflict caused by Ukraine's criticism of the agreement on Russian diesel exports. At that time, Trump said Russia had behaved “well” regarding Ukraine.
Now, however, Kushner takes care to praise the Ukrainian negotiating team and the “extraordinary efforts” they made in Abu Dhabi.
“I think they fought very, very hard for their interests, were extremely constructive, and I consider it was a very productive session.”
In turn, the Ukrainians expressed gratitude towards the American side.
Europe’s big question
One thing is to be invited to participate in real negotiations between Russia and Ukraine — and Europeans have not even received this opportunity until now. Another is to participate and then influence the discussions when they take place.
To succeed in this, Europe must carefully choose its representatives.
Zelenski says he wants to be consulted on the person who will represent Europe and that this should be a single individual. He also wants Europeans to make a decision by the end of this month.
So far, however, Europe’s approach has been far from unified. Representatives of the European Commission, European Council, NATO, the United Kingdom, France, Germany, and Italy participated in parallel discussions with the negotiations in Abu Dhabi.
Adopting a diplomatic tone, Kushner described this formula as “strong,” but added that “if Europe could appoint a single person to speak on its behalf, that would be a greater achievement than obtaining the Russians’ agreement to include Europeans in the negotiations.”
The Moment of Maximum Danger for Europe
If the latest negotiations have achieved nothing else, after months of fears that it would be left out, Europe is now — provided, of course, that Putin agrees — right in the middle of the most dangerous negotiations in its recent history.
An essential question is to what extent discussions about changing the European security architecture, which is based on NATO, will be linked to the peace negotiations regarding Ukraine.
Europeans have long maintained that Ukraine must receive the strongest possible security guarantees to prevent Russia from attacking again after the war ends. American officials want to explore the idea of a collective defense agreement for Ukraine, similar to NATO’s, which could even involve the Alliance as a guarantor.
European officials say that the order in which these discussions take place will be crucial. The European side has expressed willingness to consider the continent’s broader security system to address Russia’s concerns, alongside the peace process in Ukraine. However, Europeans do not want to accept broader reforms before achieving peace.
“We’re Just Trying to Survive”
Kushner stated that the goal is to discuss all issues and then “find a way to resolve them all at the same time.”
“I think it is very important to have these discussions. But implementing post-war security guarantees will not happen until there is an agreement on territories and all other bilateral issues,” he said.
If this position is maintained, it could be convenient for Europe. Ultimately, however, any understanding reached by officials in the negotiation room remains provisional. Everything could change following a simple phone call from Putin to Trump.
Some Europeans view this process with skepticism.
German officials involved in the discussions in Abu Dhabi see very few potential advantages and consider the negotiations a “Russian trap,” designed to create the false impression that Moscow is willing to make peace, said a German official familiar with the talks, who requested anonymity to speak openly.
“Europeans are just trying to survive,” the official said.
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