The American analysis center RAND has published a report examining the scenario of a war between Russia and Europe by the year 2030. According to this scenario, Vladimir Putin dies as early as January 2027, and the country is led by another high-ranking KGB officer who triggers a war against Europe.
According to the scenario projected by the American organization, Vladimir Putin, 74 years old, dies of natural causes, at which point a power vacuum appears in the country, and a power struggle begins within the state apparatus. A former FSB general emerges victorious and by March becomes the president of Russia, writes Agentstvo.
Fragile armistice in Ukraine and purges at the Kremlin
The new head of state tries to consolidate his power and reshape the political system according to his own interests. In April 2027, he accepts an armistice in Ukraine, obtained through mediation by the USA, the United Kingdom, and other European countries, in exchange for a partial lifting of sanctions.
However, Russia’s objectives in Ukraine remain essentially unchanged, and negotiations for a full peace reach a deadlock. The war in Ukraine turns into a frozen conflict. Subsequently, the new president orders the army to focus on restoring combat capability.
By January 2028, purges begin within the Government. The president starts replacing Putin’s closest allies with people more loyal to him. Nevertheless, his power does not seem secure: amid economic difficulties and the long-term social consequences of military losses in Ukraine, unrest continues in Russia.
To consolidate his authority, the new president launches a hybrid campaign against NATO countries. Part of this campaign involves spreading disinformation about the oppression of the Russian minority in Eastern Europe.
The USA shifts its focus away from Europe, and Russia takes advantage
In June 2029, a crisis erupts in South America, and the US administration makes it a priority, reducing its military presence in Europe.
By early 2030, the US focus remains elsewhere, and the Russian president finds himself under increasing pressure from the military elite.
The Kremlin begins developing a plan for more intense hybrid attacks and limited military operations in the Baltic states. The goal of the campaign being prepared is to demonstrate a lack of unity within NATO. Hybrid activities in Europe suddenly intensify, and the number and consequences of incidents increase.
The invasion of Narva, the beginning of the Russia-NATO war
In May 2030, Russia instigates protests in the Estonian city of Narva – where there is a large ethnic Russian population – protests that escalate into riots. Estonian authorities use force against the protesters.
The Russian president declares that Estonian authorities are not trustworthy regarding the safety of the Russian population in Narva, and Moscow’s troops begin invading Estonia, reaching the area around the city.
The Russian president bets that NATO will not trigger a large-scale military response. However, the Alliance reacts immediately, invoking the collective defense clause.
In June 2030, large-scale hostilities begin. Moscow becomes a threat to the Svalbard archipelago and northern Norway, while Russian submarines attempt to penetrate the North Atlantic.
Russia considers the United Kingdom a priority target and launches sabotage operations, cyberattacks, and air strikes against it. Air bases, ports, radar stations, and command centers become the first targets.
When the conflict ends
By November 2030, the Russian president faces internal pressures caused by his inability to achieve a quick victory. He declares the occupation of the city of Narva and most of Ida-Viru county a victory and proposes an armistice to NATO countries. This is accepted, after which peace negotiations continue for several months.
Analysts emphasize that their scenario represents only one of the possible developments. Based on this scenario, they formulated recommendations for the British government regarding stabilizing the social situation, protecting critical infrastructure, combating cyberattacks, preparing for conflict in outer space, mobilization and air strikes, as well as regarding the use of nuclear deterrence and ending the war.
T.D.