Between November 18-19, in Shenzhen, China, the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit takes place, where a first-ever negotiation is expected between Donald Trump, Vladimir Putin, and Xi Jinping, the leaders of the USA, Russia, and China.
Although it is not yet officially confirmed, and the teams of the three are working on establishing the framework for discussions, internationally the interest in the possible connection between these authoritative figures of the contemporary world is colossal.
Many compare the event to a new Potsdam, the famous July 1945 meeting between Stalin, Churchill, and Truman, the leaders of the USSR, Great Britain, and the USA, where the relations among the victorious great powers of World War II were established.
“The meeting allows Moscow to be heard on a global level,” said Alexander Braterski, a Russian political analyst, quoted by Al Jazeera, while Ukraine is left on the sidelines.”
“The mere fact of being present at the negotiating table would offer Putin the opportunity to demonstrate to the world that he is among those who will decide the future of Europe's security architecture after the war in Ukraine,” the Russian analyst added.
“If the meeting yields results, it would reflect China’s influence over Russia. We should also consider that we are dealing with a much weaker American leader after the elections,” Bratersky further said.
This is the viewpoint of an expert that perfectly aligns with the official Kremlin stance. Vladimir Putin hopes the meeting will take place and that he will receive validation as the leader of a “global superpower,” whatever that might still mean for Russia.
Retreat Equals Defeat
The Kremlin, after 5 years of war in which it has not achieved any strategic objectives in Ukraine, producing only suffering and death, is chasing any international opportunity to project an image of Vladimir Putin as a global leader.
As has been said multiple times recently, with over a million Russians dead and seriously wounded in a military conflict considered a huge strategic mistake, the war continues only because Vladimir Putin can no longer withdraw from Ukraine.
A withdrawal, for the Russian leader, would be equal to a defeat, at least that is how it would be perceived in Moscow. And that would mean the end of the road for Vladimir Putin.
The likely meeting between the three, although there are more panicked commentators talking about a “new division of spheres of influence” — neither Trump, nor Xi Jinping, nor Putin feel very comfortable — will be more of a gathering of the defeated than the victors, as Potsdam was eight decades ago.
Trump has entered the last two years of his term, having lost the midterm elections by a large margin, holding the unofficial title of the most unpopular American president in history.
Vladimir Putin, as noted above, is stuck in a war he counted on lasting three days, and for 5 years the army, society, and Russian economy have been eroding like a cancer.
Xi Jinping, the beneficiary of a massive marketing campaign portraying China as a huge economic success, faces problems regarding the country’s development, hit by a strong demographic decline, issues related to financial stability, with the state being the main investor in many industries aiming to conquer international markets.
Also, Xi Jinping has been destabilized regarding his plans for a military superpower. The strategy to conquer Taiwan was frozen after Russia’s failure in Ukraine.
A possible resistance from the island’s inhabitants, modeled after the forces in Kyiv, would be devastating for China’s influence and prestige, a failure the dictatorial regime in Beijing cannot afford due to fears of political destabilization.
Global Recognition Versus Peace in Ukraine
Therefore, there are limited chances to witness important decisions from the three authoritarian leaders. Trump is not a dictator, unlike his counterparts, only because of the American democratic system, one of the most functional and stable in the entire world.
The meeting of the three aims to put Putin in the spotlight, offering the Kremlin leader the chance to perform on a global stage so that his prestige in Russia increases.
In such a context, it is hoped to create a favorable environment for the Russian leader so that he can make compromises regarding the path to a ceasefire in the Ukrainian conflict.
The military problems faced by Russia in Ukraine indirectly create issues regarding China’s project to establish an alternative to NATO, a new military power pole to counterbalance the strength and influence of Western states.
Thus, Vladimir Putin will receive international recognition from the most visible global leaders, while Trump and Xi Jinping will try to convince him to accept a ceasefire along the current front line, followed by the resumption of peace negotiations.
But at such a level, nothing is certain. What is certain, however, is that Putin can no longer bear the burden of Ukrainian drones destroying refineries across Russia’s entire territory, while losing 1,000 soldiers per day in Ukraine.