The price of diesel in Romania could reach approximately 11.5 lei per liter by the end of May if the Middle East conflict continues and oil routes remain affected.
The estimate comes from an analysis conducted by the Intelligent Energy Association (AEI), which indicates that the evolution largely depends on the increase in Brent oil prices and the rise in diesel prices in the European market.
According to the study, the fuel market in Europe is influenced by several factors: the price of Brent oil, refining margins for diesel, logistical costs, seasonal demand, the dollar exchange rate, and the level of taxes and excise duties.
AEI President Dumitru Chisăliță explains that price trends typically follow a clear chain: Brent oil influences the price of diesel traded on the European hub of Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp (ARA), and this evolution is then transmitted to regional markets, including Romania.
"There is usually a direct relationship between these elements: Brent – Diesel ARA – Diesel Romania. The ARA hub is the European reference for refined products, and the evolution of diesel prices in this hub is rapidly transmitted to regional markets, including Romania," Chisăliță states.
The Pessimistic Scenario: Shock in the European Market
In the most pessimistic scenario, the analysis authors estimate that diesel prices in the ARA hub could increase by approximately 117% in the next 80 days, following an initial jump of about 80% in the early days of the conflict.
Such an evolution could occur in the event of a major diesel shortage in Europe, caused by several factors: additional sanctions on Russian refined products, unplanned shutdowns in European refineries, or increased demand before the agricultural season and peak transportation period.
In this scenario, diesel traded in the ARA hub could reach around $2,850 per ton, a level considered by the authors as a major shock to the market, surpassing episodes during the 2022 energy crisis.
The Most Likely Scenario
However, the analysis authors consider a more likely medium scenario, where prices increase at a rate similar to the early days of the conflict.
This scenario involves an increase of approximately 79% in diesel prices over the next 80 days, amid a tense but functional market with relatively low stocks and high seasonal demand.
In a more optimistic variant, the increase would be limited to around 41%, if global fuel production rises, refining margins decrease, and the global economy slows down.
Oil Pushed Up by the Middle East Conflict
The AEI analysis shows that geopolitical tensions have already driven oil prices up.
"Brent prices have risen by up to 15%, reaching over $100 per barrel over the weekend, as key producers in the Middle East have reduced production due to the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial area, remaining closed due to the conflict with Iran," the study authors note.
Kuwait, one of the major OPEC producers, has already announced precautionary production cuts, citing Iranian threats to maritime transport in the Strait of Hormuz.
In Iraq, production from the three major oil fields in the south is reported to have decreased by about 70%, to around 1.3 million barrels per day, from 4.3 million before the conflict.
How Price Increases are Transmitted to the Pump
In Romania, the price of diesel depends mainly on the evolution of the refined product on the ARA market, as well as logistical costs, distributor margins, and tax levels.
A model based on 2026 statistical data shows that a 10% increase in Brent oil prices could lead to a 12–15% increase in diesel prices at the ARA hub and approximately an 8–10% increase at the pump in Romania.
Diesel is usually more volatile than gasoline, as industrial and logistical demand is higher, and stocks are lower.
Estimation for the Coming Months
Based on the analyzed scenarios, AEI estimates that in the next three months:
- diesel traded in the ARA hub could reach around $1,500 per ton,
- Brent oil could rise to about $130 per barrel,
- and diesel prices in Romania could reach approximately 11.5 lei per liter.
The analysis indicates that price trends will depend on several risk factors, such as escalating geopolitical conflicts, reduced oil production, or potential blockages on strategic maritime routes like the Strait of Hormuz or the Suez Canal.
At the same time, a global recession, increased oil production in the US, or decreased industrial demand could mitigate price hikes.
Europe, with a Structural Diesel Deficit
According to the study, the European market is already vulnerable as refining capacity has decreased over the past decade due to the closure or conversion of refineries for biofuel production.
In addition, sanctions on Russian refined products have eliminated an important supply source.
"The result is a market characterized by a structural deficit of middle distillates, the category to which diesel belongs. In this context, any increase in crude oil prices is rapidly transmitted to diesel prices," the analysis states.
AEI President concludes that the trend of price hikes is almost inevitable.
"For Romania, the question is not whether diesel will become more expensive. The question is how quickly and by how much," says Dumitru Chisăliță.