Romanian politics has long lost any trace of reason. Looking at the statement of Marian Neacșu, former deputy prime minister from the PSD and negotiator of the party with AUR for drafting and submitting the motion of censure, and then at the statement of Sorin Grindeanu, the leader of the social democrats, it seems as if they were made by people from different parties.
Neacșu talks about the first step towards forming a parliamentary majority with the extremists from AUR, while Grindeanu contradicts him, stating that the goal is only the dismissal of Prime Minister Ilie Bolojan.
„I want to be very clear: it is a parliamentary initiative, it is an initiative that currently has support beyond political color – PSD, AUR, PACE, SOS, and so on – and that’s how I would like it to be interpreted,” said Grindeanu after the National Permanent Bureau meeting.
"There are many things that set us apart, but there is a common goal, which is to vote for this motion and bring down the Bolojan Government. This is a common goal. To be as clear as possible, there is no post-motion political agreement," Sorin Grindeanu further declared.
In addition to contradicting Marian Neacșu, most likely pushed forward by the faction within the party that wants an alliance with AUR, the PSD leader argues that the formation led by George Simion is merely a tool to remove Ilie Bolojan from the Victoria Palace. Sorin Grindeanu's expectations are very clear: after the government's dismissal, he will negotiate a new coalition with PNL, USR, and UDMR, leaving AUR to remain in the Opposition.
PSD's Stake is PNL
In this seemingly illogical action, there is a certain desperation of the PSD not to lose its privileges and access to public resources, threatened by reforms and, especially, by the principled attitude of the prime minister.
AUR does not aim to reach government. They do not want to erode in power alongside the social democrats, who have the majority of public opinion against them. It is worth noting that in the 2024 elections, PSD obtained 22.3% of the votes.
The party led by Simion aims to present itself to the electorate as a political force capable of toppling a government.
In this context, all the pressure is on the liberals. Will PNL manage to remain united under any circumstances, even in the most difficult situation, where the motion of censure by PSD-AUR will obtain a parliamentary majority?
"Their stake (PSD and AUR - ed.) is our party, dear liberal colleagues. And as I have repeatedly said, through meetings, we will soon be called upon to make a conscientious choice: our dignity, the public agenda, and future generations of liberals or the system, the money, and, not long after, irrelevance," wrote Ciprian Ciucu (PNL), the mayor of Bucharest, in a Facebook post.
The liberal leader has noticed that the major test must be taken within the party that has been corrupted by years of governance alongside the PSD.
Ilie Bolojan will win... even if he loses
If PNL remains united around Ilie Bolojan, regardless of whether the motion passes or fails, the liberals will be the big winners. Alongside USR and UDMR, freed from Viktor Orban's grip, an efficient, moderate opposition will be formed, easily winning the 2028 elections.
Even with the motion voted by PSD and AUR, if PNL continues to support Ilie Bolojan, the deadlock in which the social democrats will find themselves will be so significant that Sorin Grindeanu will have little chance of survival.
And there is another observation that political leaders must internalize: Ilie Bolojan, based on all signals, poll numbers, and the wave of support on social networks, has already won the game, becoming the new leader, albeit informally, of Romania.
The current president of the PNL even has the possibility to form a new liberal movement that will enter the Opposition and grind down what remains of the PSD.
Romania's Stability, a European Issue
At a plenary session of the European Parliament in Strasbourg, Siegfried Mureșan (PNL), rapporteur for the 2028-2034 budget execution, stated that the PSD is once again turning into an anti-European and problematic party, just as it was during Liviu Dragnea's era.
"The objective of the European Union is to manage the complicated situations we are in as best as possible. This requires well-governed and stable countries that strengthen their economy, not deliberately destabilized countries," said liberal Siegfried Mureșan.
"These developments are worrying for the entire European Union. The Social Democratic Party has managed, in a few weeks, to remind the entire European Union that it was, a few years ago, a party that attacked European values, attacked the institutions of the European Union, attacked independent justice, and attacked the rule of law," stated the MEP in front of journalists in Strasbourg.
"We could see a government formed by AUR and PSD, because this motion of censure could lead in that direction," Siegfried Mureșan added.
"A particularly important role will obviously be played by the President of Romania, who ran and was elected on a reform agenda, on a modernization agenda for the country, totally opposed to the agendas of the PSD and AUR. Candidate Nicușor Dan won against Călin Georgescu and George Simion, so it would be inconceivable for him to endorse such a government, and, in fact, he has said he will not," emphasized the PNL MEP.
So far, the president shows no signs that he can control the political crisis, but a source close to the Cotroceni Palace told Spotmedia.ro that Nicușor Dan has approached it as "a math problem," whatever that may mean. In the coming days, it will be clearer whether he will succeed in solving the complicated equation of the Romanian reality.