The price of diesel in Romania is, on average, about 10 bani per liter higher than the level justified by the real costs of the market, says Dumitru Chisăliță, the president of the Smart Energy Association (AEI), in an analysis published on Thursday.
The difference is not significant at the level of each liter, but it becomes significant on the scale of the annual fuel consumption in the economy.
According to the specialist, the structure of the oil market in Romania should, in normal circumstances, contribute to stabilizing fuel prices.
"Romania is the second largest oil producer in Europe, has one of the most developed oil infrastructures in Central and Eastern Europe, with refineries, direct access to maritime imports through the Black Sea, and a logistical pipeline system connecting ports to internal refineries and depots. Normally, such a structure should stabilize fuel prices and mitigate fluctuations in the international market," says Chisăliță.
The analysis conducted by AEI - "Analysis of oil flows, costs, and pump prices in Romania" - shows, however, that the price of diesel at the pump is above the level considered correct from a cost perspective.
"The difference is not dramatic - about 10 bani per liter - but in an economy that consumes millions of tons of fuel annually, even this seemingly small margin becomes relevant," says Chisăliță.
How the oil supply works in Romania
According to the analysis, the supply of oil and oil products in Romania is structured on three main levels: the current supply flow (domestic production and imports), the commercial stocks of companies, and the mandatory strategic stocks of the state.
"This model is identical to that used in most EU member states and is designed to ensure energy security. Refineries in Romania process raw materials from domestic production and maritime or regional imports."
Supply contracts are generally organized on logistic cycles of 30-90 days, and refineries maintain operational stocks of oil equivalent to approximately 20-45 days of operation.
For oil products, the logistics chain is faster: regional diesel imports can arrive in 7-21 days, and maritime transport from the Middle East or Asia in 20-45 days.
Romania imports about 70% of the oil it processes
Despite being an oil producer, Romania heavily depends on imports. The annual oil consumption is about 10 million tons, and domestic production covers only 2.9 million tons. This means that approximately 70% of the demand comes from imports, mainly from Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, and Iraq.
Diesel is the main fuel of the Romanian economy, with an annual consumption of about 6.6 million tons. A significant part is covered by direct imports or from imported and locally refined oil.
Romania currently has three major refineries: Petromidia (Rompetrol), Petrobrazi (OMV Petrom), and Petrotel (Lukoil), with a total refining capacity of about 12 million tons per year. The transport of oil and oil products is carried out through the network operated by Conpet, which has approximately 3,800 kilometers of pipelines.
The oil system could cover over 100 days of consumption
The analysis also shows that the market operates with multiple levels of stocks.
"Commercial stocks of oil products normally cover about 20-45 days of consumption. At the same time, Romania maintains mandatory strategic stocks according to EU legislation, which must cover at least 90 days of net imports or 61 days of domestic consumption."
In practice, the level of strategic stocks is about 90 days of consumption, which means that the Romanian oil system could theoretically cover between 110 and 130 days of consumption in the event of a major crisis.
The total estimated storage capacity for oil and oil products is about 3.3 million tons.
Oil has become more expensive, but not enough for the current price
According to the simulation conducted by AEI for the period December 2025 - February 2026, the oil market remained stable.
The commercial stock of diesel is estimated at about 450,000 tons, equivalent to 25-27 days of consumption in the winter season. Monthly diesel inputs - domestic production and imports - are almost equal to outputs represented by domestic consumption and exports.
Refineries process approximately 900,000-950,000 tons of oil per month and maintain a stock of about 900,000 tons, equivalent to about 30 days of operation.
"According to AEI's calculations, the average price of diesel at the pump should have increased from 7.64 lei/l in December 2025 to a maximum of about 8.35 lei/l in the first week of March 2026."
However, data from the PecoOnline platform shows that on March 5, 2026, the average diesel price in Romania was about 8.45 lei/l.
"The difference is about 10 bani per liter above the estimated cost level," says Chisăliță.
Impact on the economy: hundreds of millions of lei
With an annual consumption of about 6.6 million tons of diesel, a difference of just 10 bani per liter can mean hundreds of millions of lei annually, according to AEI.
The cost is indirectly borne by transporters, farmers, and industry and ultimately reflects in the prices paid by consumers.
"Of those 10 bani, we estimate that 3.5 bani go to the state budget and 6.5 bani go to companies. But from the beginning of the year to date, the state gains an additional 8 bani per liter sold from the increase in oil product prices through VAT," Chisăliță further explains.
The expert says that in a functioning market, price variations are normal, but when they exceed the costs justified by raw materials and logistics, questions arise about commercial margins.
"In this context, it would be useful for the National Authority for Consumer Protection and the Competition Council to analyze the evolution of margins in the fuel distribution sector and how they have changed in recent days. More transparency regarding the pump price structure would contribute to strengthening public trust in a market essential for the economy," the expert adds.
"Because in an economy dependent on road transport, the price of diesel is not just an energy issue - but one that affects the entire economy," concludes Dumitru Chisăliță.