Although Russia was spared from the new trade tariffs announced earlier this month by former U.S. President Donald Trump, the Kremlin acknowledges that a potential escalation of a global trade war would have negative consequences on the Russian economy, CNBC reports.
„Instability in the global economy cannot fail to affect Russia as well,” Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov told CNBC.
"At the same time, we manage to maintain macroeconomic stability, even in the face of numerous sanctions," he added in a comment sent via email.
Russia was excluded from the list of countries affected by the new customs tariffs announced by Trump, unlike many traditional U.S. allies. According to White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt, Russia was not targeted because the existing economic sanctions following the invasion of Ukraine "eliminate any significant trade relationship" with the U.S.
However, analysts challenge this justification, highlighting that Russia continued to have trade exchanges with the U.S. in 2024 worth around $3 billion, more than some countries included in the tariff list, such as Brunei or Mauritius. Paradoxically, Ukraine was affected by a 10% tariff.
A White House official clarified that countries like Russia, Cuba, Belarus, and North Korea were not included in the reciprocal tariff order because "they are already subject to very high tariffs and sanctions that exclude any significant commerce." At the same time, Trump recently threatened additional sanctions against Russia.
Former diplomat Alexander Kolyandr, a researcher at the Center for European Policy Analysis, noted that, based on the tariff calculation formula, Russia should have faced a 40% tax based on the 2024 trade data. Its exclusion raises questions about potential U.S. intentions to gain influence over Moscow in the peace negotiations regarding Ukraine, an idea that Kolyandr considers illusory given the low volume of trade and lack of mutual dependence.
Amid the global turmoil caused by Trump's imposed tariffs, the World Trade Organization warned on Wednesday that prospects for international trade "have significantly deteriorated," estimating a 0.2% decline in global trade volume in 2025.
Even though not a direct target, Russia could suffer severe collateral effects. In an economy already affected by inflation, 10.3% annually in March, and with a key interest rate of 21% maintained by the central bank, a global decline in demand for oil would pose a major risk. Oil exports remain Russia's main source of foreign income, and a global recession would seriously impact prices and demand.
"Russia continues to depend on the global economy and the high demand for its exports. If a global recession follows, that could severely hit the country's revenues," explained Kolyandr to CNBC. He added that amidst global uncertainty and declining oil revenues, the Central Bank of Russia will struggle to lower the interest rate, suffocating the country's non-military economy.
"In practice, two-thirds of the national economy must borrow at a rate of 21%. You cannot have a healthy economy under these conditions," the analyst concluded.