What are the chances of Elena Lasconi making it to the second round?

Since 2004, in four rounds of elections, Romanian citizens have voted for a political figure who stood out as a mayor before embarking on the path to the Cotroceni Palace as the head of state. The leader of USR is the only mayor to enter an extremely tight presidential race.
What are the chances of Elena Lasconi making it to the second round?

With green eyes, a wide smile on her face, and a clear, baritonal voice, the former journalist embarked on an adventure, trying to become the first female president of Romania.

Three months before the elections, Elena Lasconi emerges as a strong threat to Marcel Ciolacu, Nicolae Ciucă, Mircea Geoană, and George Simion.

At this moment, apart from the NATO Deputy Secretary-General, all other candidates have officially announced their intention to occupy the presidential seat.

According to political sources and the analysis of polls published until July, on November 24, there will be a very tight competition to advance to the second round of the presidential elections.

There are four candidates with percentages between 13 and 19%: Mircea Geoană, Marcel Ciolacu, Elena Lasconi, and George Simion.

Nicolae Ciucă, the PNL president, is below 10% at this moment, according to several political sources. This is where Crin Antonescu's reaction comes from, along with tensions within the party.

"Considering how tight the electoral race is now; the next months of pre-campaign and campaign will matter a lot. We are far from the elections where we knew we would have a PSD candidate and a center-right candidate in the second round, and the debate was about who could win in the second round," stated political analyst Costin Ciobanu exclusively for Spotmedia.ro.

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"It remains to be seen how Elena Lasconi will define herself, how she will respond to the inevitable attacks, how she will transition from the profile of a mayor to that of a presidential candidate, what topics she will choose, and to what extent she will be able to speak credibly about subjects such as foreign policy or defense," adds Costin Ciobanu.

Will USR be saved?

Elena Lasconi could communicate. She expresses herself easily and correctly, unlike other candidates she is competing with, she is extremely adaptable to the public's expectations, and manages to react quickly to the situations she faces.

It is not yet known if she can lead Romania. In her campaign, she has not addressed serious issues, such as the economic recovery of the country, affected by inflation, she has not spoken about the huge bureaucratic apparatus, nor about combating corruption.

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NATIONALISM. USR leader wears a traditional hat. Lasconi places great emphasis on connecting with people living in rural areas - Photo: Facebook/ Elena Lasconi
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YOUNG VOTERS. She attended the UNTOLD festival, a highly successful music event among young people from urban areas, another category of voters targeted by Elena Lasconi - Photo: Facebook/ Elena Lasconi
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PUPPY WITH HAIR. Elena Lasconi, an animal lover, an image that conveys emotion and sensitivity, being at the same time natural - Photo: Facebook/ Elena Lasconi

She has not presented her vision on the relationship with partners in the European Union and the US, nor regarding Romania's security in the context of the war in Ukraine.

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We only know that Elena Lasconi is perceived by the citizens of Câmpulung city as a good mayor, currently serving her second term.

"I don't believe the President of Romania should be friends with any terrorist. I don't think there should be doubts about the studies the President of Romania has or question marks about how he obtained that revolutionary certificate."

Elena Lasconi, a political attack against Marcel Ciolacu, the PSD president, a former associate of Omar Hayssam, a businessman convicted of terrorism

She took over the leadership of USR after a resounding failure of this party in the local and European Parliament elections, with the party scoring around 8% politically.

With such a result, the party risks not being able to enter the future parliament, hence Elena Lasconi, the politician with the most significant electoral successes, has taken over the fate of USR.

"I'm glad I found out who I'm up against in the second round, and I think many are surprised that Marcel Ciolacu has mustered the courage to run. It seems incredible that after a disastrous term as prime minister, you want to be the country's president. The economic data, from my point of view, but also from specialists, is worrying. You know very well that we have a very high deficit, the highest inflation, people feel weak governance, they feel they are doing worse and worse, and they can buy fewer and fewer things when they go to the market or the store," announced Elena Lasconi on her Facebook page, shortly after Marcel Ciolacu, the PSD leader, announced his candidacy for the presidency.

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Who supports Elena Lasconi?

It is not clear what Lasconi relies on, but she claims to have the best chances of reaching the second round in the race for the Cotroceni Palace, alongside the head of the social democrats.

At this moment, some polls indicate a percentage of 16% for Lasconi, double the party's score in the European Parliament elections, while Marcel Ciolacu is at 17%, below the PSD score.

But in the equation, there is also Mircea Geoană, who is rated at 19%, declining but with a solid chance of still making it to the second round.

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PERCENTAGES. How the candidates' scores look in the presidential race three months before the elections - Infographic: Spotmedia.ro

"Elena Lasconi's main supporters are voters from the USR spectrum, which includes REPER voters or those who voted for independents in the European Parliament elections. Today, Elena Lasconi covers well the audience that supported USR in the 2020 parliamentary elections," stated analyst Costin Ciobanu for Spotmedia.ro.

"There is still no candidate from the progressive area, we will see if this possibility will materialize. Such a scenario is a threat to Mrs. Lasconi, who strives to keep together public areas that have taken different directions in recent years. However, Elena Lasconi attracts, as some research shows, support from undecided voters and non-voters, indicating a potential to address a wider audience, which we can identify with the USR voters in the 2019 European elections," the expert believes.

If such a phenomenon were to occur, Elena Lasconi would achieve a score in the first round of the elections of over 20%, which would almost certainly mean entering the presidential final.

In 2019, USR-PLUS obtained 22.4% of the votes of Romanian citizens, the highest score in the party's election history.

A small logo and a big cross

"There are liberal voters who are leaning towards Elena Lasconi, just as there are liberals who prefer candidate Mircea Geoană.

Although the Ciucă-Lasconi comparison is natural because both are naturally placed in the center-right area, the greater danger for Nicolae Ciucă is Mircea Geoană, not Elena Lasconi. It is no surprise that the PNL seeks to link Mircea Geoană to his social-democratic past and is less concerned about Elena Lasconi," noted analyst Costin Ciobanu.

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CAMPAIGN. Elena Lasconi's electoral poster, with a large cross around her neck and a tricolor bracelet on her right hand, conveys a message targeting more the AUR voters rather than the USR voters - Source: USR

For many voters, the USR leader is more of a presence on social media, a morning smile over coffee, or a prayer in a picturesque rural church.

Bob Wickers, a veteran of political strategy, with strong experience in electoral confrontations in Eastern Europe, is working on Elena Lasconi's campaign, as reported by an investigative journalism piece published by Snoop.ro.

Wickers was involved in Boris Yeltsin's 1996 reelection campaign, Ion Iliescu's 1996 campaign, as well as in elections in Hungary, Bulgaria, the USA, etc.

"Currently, we have few clues about Elena Lasconi's political strategy. Looking at her posters, we see an unusually small USR logo and a very visible cross. From this, we can deduce two things: Elena Lasconi is looking for an independent profile that will attract USR voters, a mechanism that worked for Nicușor Dan. And secondly, she aims to attract more moderate, slightly conservative voters, without alienating the progressive audience, a balancing act hard to sustain for three months," explained Costin Ciobanu for Spotmedia.ro readers.

Although the electoral campaign is in its initial stages, and much can happen in the coming period, Elena Lasconi has managed to connect with some voters, taking a step towards the second round of the Romanian presidential elections. 


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