As the conflict between the US and Iran escalates, Donald Trump faces a difficult strategic choice: to declare that he has achieved his objectives or to continue the offensive. According to an analysis published by Sky News, the real stake is not only military but also political, economic, and regional.
Sky News’ International Business Editor, Dominic Waghorn, sums up the dilemma in simple terms: Accept victory or double down.
Trump has stated that the war could continue "for weeks," but the question remains whether the US can sustain such a pace and for how long.
Pressure from the Gulf and decreasing missile stocks
Prior to the outbreak of the conflict, there were unusual leaks from inside the Pentagon indicating that the military force concentrated in the region had enough firepower for at most "one or two weeks."
Meanwhile, pressure is also coming from regional allies. According to well-documented information cited by Sky News, Gulf states are already urging the American president to quickly end the conflict as their stocks of anti-aircraft defense missiles are rapidly dwindling.
An asymmetric war: million-dollar missiles versus thousands of drones
The analysis describes the conflict as "asymmetric." The formula used is suggestive: it is "as unbalanced as using Ferraris against electric bicycles."
For example, a Patriot missile, costing millions of dollars, can destroy a drone worth only a few thousand. However, doing this indefinitely is not sustainable, the analysis emphasizes.
Iran's strategy of hitting in multiple directions has surprised many observers. However, Tehran had long warned that it would abandon any restraint if there was an attempt to change the regime.
Could the conflict escalate into a civil war?
There are also more radical scenarios. Sky News raises the question of whether Israel is trying to weaken certain regions through airstrikes to facilitate internal revolts supported by agents on the ground.
Such a scenario could lead to the fragmentation of Iran and a civil war.
However, "there are currently no signs" in this regard. In the absence of such a strategy, the Iranian regime could survive "a few weeks of airstrikes, no matter how intense they may be."
Different objectives, different definitions of victory
The war is also asymmetric in terms of objectives. To win, the US and Israel must bring about a regime change – this is their stated goal.
For the Iranian regime, victory has a much simpler definition: to survive.
However, maintaining the current pace of attacks indefinitely "is not an option" for either the US or Israel. Human losses would increase, the impact on the global economy would become too great, and domestic support for a new external war would constantly erode.
For one reason or another, this war will have its limits, concludes the analysis. The essential question remains: if the Iranian regime will survive until the exhaustion of this confrontation, what will be the next step for Washington and Tel Aviv?
G.P.