On the day Parliament approved President Nicușor Dan’s proposal, supported by CSAT, to support the US in the conflict in Iran, Darryl Nirenberg, the new American ambassador to Bucharest, visited Sorin Grindeanu.
Over the past two weeks, the diplomat met with several Romanian officials, including the presidents of both chambers of parliament, Prime Minister Ilie Bolojan, and several ministers.
It is unclear whether the meeting between Darryl Nirenberg and Grindeanu was a coincidence, but the two discussed the complicated international situation due to the Iranian crisis and the reinvigoration of relations between the US and Romania.
"In the current international context, marked by the escalation of the conflict in the Middle East, we emphasized the importance of coordination between partners. We reiterated the interest in securing trade routes, an essential condition for stabilizing oil prices," stated Sorin Grindeanu, the president of the PSD, after the meeting with Ambassador Nirenberg.
Romania is affected by international events, and the war in Iran has a significant impact not only economically but also politically.
PSD, second fiddle
The current crisis and the fact that Romania is caught between two conflicts do not allow for an internal crisis by the government's collapse. Sorin Grindeanu received clear messages in this regard.
However, PSD's influence in the coalition has decreased after months of vocal opposition, even though the party is in power.
The biggest humiliation for Sorin Grindeanu occurred on Wednesday, March 18, during the negotiations for amendments to the state budget. PSD tried to add additional expenses of about 1.2 billion lei for the "social package," but the amendment was rejected twice.
"With PSD, we had a discussion with those in the committee, and I said this: we are not proud, we can give up the amendment with the health insurance contribution, but will you also accept the amendments we submit, which are much smaller, to be supported. Initially, they said YES, then they informed us that the party leadership did not agree..." stated Senator Petrișor Peiu.
Thus, although the social democrats are part of the governing coalition and have actively participated in budget discussions, they have begun to collaborate with AUR, the party led by George Simion, to support certain amendments to the budget law in parliamentary committees.
Then, surprisingly, AUR rejects the PSD's Social Package, stating that a political agreement has been violated.
What happened on Wednesday was an example of how a possible collaboration between AUR and PSD would unfold, and that in such a political construct, the social democrats would play second fiddle, with their national political influence rapidly evaporating.
State of shock
"Strategically, PSD made a serious mistake by putting AUR in the position of kingmaker. Out of arrogance, stupidity, or desperation, they did nothing but bring their main opponent into the living room, and now they are caught between AUR and the other parties in the Coalition," explained Cristian Hrituc, former presidential advisor, about PSD's failure.
"Yesterday's moment (note: Wednesday, March 18) should make PSD members think. AUR is much more populist than them, can play this card much better, and when you ally with it, betraying pro-European parties, it will swallow you. They can still fix what they have done, although I suspect they are still in a state of shock," the analyst further wrote in a Facebook post.
Nicușor Dan, the President of Romania, also reacted after this episode. While in Brussels, the head of state emphasized in a press statement that "the four pro-Western parties are doomed to govern together."
And with that, the whole commotion caused by PSD, the threats that the party would leave the government, and the warlike statements of Sorin Grindeanu enter a new phase, one where they no longer scare anyone.
Political adventure postponed
The clash with AUR was a shock for many leaders in PSD who imagined they could govern with Simion's party. Some understood that entering the extremist vortex requires a different political action than what the party-state knew, accustomed to dominating any alliance it entered and eventually destroying it at a convenient time from an electoral perspective.
"There were two weeks when certain groups, from both parties, pushed the story of a breakup. They created an atmosphere. That was it. Through various voices, politicians, and influencers. Narratives and reasons for scandal were pushed. The political entrepreneurs who want power in PSD and PNL tried to break the government, but it didn't work. Because for now, the leaders are in control. They will try again. And others, intentionally or not, will provoke accidents...," concluded Cristian Andrei from the Political Rating Agency about the political tensions surrounding the budget law.
For now, tensions within the governing coalition are easing. However, the risk of an economic crisis caused by rising fuel prices due to the war in Iran remains a threat to all parliamentary parties.
After the past few weeks, Sorin Grindeanu has stronger arguments in front of those in PSD who sympathize with AUR, including Olguța Vasilescu. He can argue that staying in government and a possible takeover of the prime minister's position next year are safer options for PSD than a risky alliance with populists, which could harm the party.