Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky remains silent on the biggest corruption scandal within his administration. What is the reason?
The biggest corruption scandal affecting Zelensky’s inner circle has expanded beyond the energy sector, according to recent leaks published by journalists and lawmakers in the past week.
It appears that now the banking and defense industries are involved, with attention also focused on the construction of four luxury villas near Kiev. A man referred to as "Vova," a shortened form of Volodymyr, is briefly mentioned among those implicated, writes The Kyiv Independent.
Over the course of a year, the scandal has led to the indictment of nine individuals, and three ministers - a deputy prime minister, along with energy and justice ministers - have lost their positions due to their involvement in a case involving a $100 million loss, according to Ukrainian anti-corruption bodies.
Zelensky's chief of staff, Andriy Yermak, the country's second most influential figure for a period, also lost his position following searches conducted by the National Anti-Corruption Bureau, the publication recalls.
The Barbra Streisand Effect
Zelensky and several high-ranking officials have downplayed the scandal from the beginning, with critics suggesting that the rapid succession of events gives the Ukrainian president hope that he can weather the storm.
"I think (the government) is afraid of two things. First, that they could trigger 'a Barbra Streisand effect' - if they start to deny, everyone will assume it really happened. Second, there might be something we don't know and they fear it will become public, which would seriously damage the government's image," said political analyst Ihor Reiterovych.
In November, as the corruption scandal began to escalate, the president quietly imposed sanctions on his former business partner and alleged leader - Timur Mindich - and businessman Oleksandr Tsukerman. Both fled Ukraine before being charged, the cited publication notes.
Asked about this, Zelensky shifted the responsibility to Prime Minister Yulia Sviridenko to handle the consequences, a move he repeated after the new revelations.
The president also called for the privatization of the state bank mentioned in the recordings, without referencing the reasons behind his decision.
A Storm Tamed by a Glimmer of Hope
Back then, the scandal was quickly overshadowed by the publication of a 28-point peace plan supported by the US, which effectively united the country around Zelensky.
In his speech, the president described the US-driven peace talks as "one of the most difficult moments in our history."
"We need to stop this damn storm, stop the political games," he added.
The situation began to stabilize: Zelensky carried out a major political reshuffle and started to gain support from former popular politicians and public figures.
A year and a half later, the scandal resurfaces with more revelations.
During the last presidential race, Zelensky accused the then-president, Petro Poroshenko, of corruption and nepotism. An embezzlement probe in the defense sector affected Poroshenko's approval rating and influenced the election outcome.
Seven years later, Zelensky finds himself in a similar position.
Trust in Zelensky Remains High
"Of course, this weakens the president's position - in the short, medium, and long term," a parliamentarian from Zelensky's Servant of the People party told Kyiv Independent on condition of anonymity. "But the consequences can only be legal."
"Whether the president is involved or not, this still needs to be proven. Honestly, I hope he isn't," a second parliamentarian from Zelensky's party told Kyiv Independent.
Reiterovych says that as the case evolves and new recordings and details emerge, this could impact Zelensky's public support rates, although the extent of any impact will depend on the possible involvement of the president in the scandal.
"It's more about the legitimacy of the authorities regarding public support. Obviously, this could decrease, but if the findings are not critical, then it will be a relatively peaceful outcome for the government," he said.
Throughout the war, trust in Zelensky remained relatively high. Even after last year's protests, when the president's team tried to limit the independence of anti-corruption agencies, there was only a slight decline.
By the end of last year, about 60% of Ukrainians held Zelensky directly responsible for the actions of the alleged main culprit, Mindich, at the center of Ukraine's biggest corruption scandal.
Over the past year, public confidence in Zelensky has fluctuated between 53% and 65%, reaching 58% in April, according to the International Institute of Sociology in Kyiv (KIIS).
T.D.