After finding themselves dragged into a war that is not their own, the Gulf states have lost confidence in the Trump administration’s ability to stop the conflict in the Middle East. Now they fear being used as pawns by the US and Israel, so they should negotiate separately with Iran, analysts believe.
Shortly after Donald Trump declared that the US is engaged in „solid discussions” to end the war with Iran this week, Qatar took an unusual step, distancing itself from the alleged diplomatic negotiations.
"Qatar has not been involved in any mediation efforts," government spokesperson Majed al-Ansari said at a Tuesday evening press conference, before adding, as an aside: "If there are any."
This signaled a notable departure from Qatar's historical and recurring position as a key mediator in the Middle East and broader regional conflicts. Whether it's negotiations between Israel and Hamas, discussions between the US and the Taliban, or attempts to negotiate peace agreements in Lebanon and Sudan, orchestrating diplomatic summits has been a cornerstone of the small Gulf state's international influence, as highlighted in an analysis published in The Guardian.
Let's also consider the Boeing 747 airplane that Qatar gifted to Trump last year, valued at around $400 million, probably the most valuable and useless gift ever given to the United States by a foreign government. Plus the NATO-style security guarantee that Trump granted to Qatar. They were of no use.
Qatar, as well as the other Gulf countries, have been on the front line of the war, after their mediation efforts to try to prevent the conflict were ultimately rejected by the United States.
Gulf Countries on the Front Line of a War That Is Not Theirs
The US has attacked Iran twice during negotiations aimed at halting the Iranian nuclear program, negotiations supported and led by Oman. The discussions last June were halted due to attacks by the US and Israel on Iranian nuclear facilities.
Negotiations resumed this February, but also became futile when Trump began bombing Tehran alongside Israel, just before the final round of meetings.
Since the beginning of the war, the Gulf countries have been forced to spend billions to fend off daily Iranian missile and drone attacks, and their economies and sovereignty have taken blow after blow.
Trust in American Negotiations Is Shattered
The reluctance of these states to support the alleged ceasefire efforts reflects both the heavy cost they continue to bear due to the war and a persistent suspicion about the sincerity of Trump's statements about peace, analysts believe.
"They used to believe they were playing a useful mediation role until they realized it was all in vain. Not to mention that they were directly involved in the war and are still being attacked by the Iranians. So, there is a lot of pent-up frustration and disappointment affecting their desire and possibly even their ability to mediate anything," said Bilal Saab, Senior Fellow at the Trends US think tank and former Pentagon official in the first Trump administration, as quoted in the cited newspaper.
The lack of clarity on the current alleged negotiations between the US and Iran and a deep distrust in the Trump regime have made Gulf leaders hesitant, for the moment, to engage in discussions.
It is still unclear exactly who the Americans are talking to in Iran to present their peace proposal. Fundamental questions remain about who within the Iranian regime is giving orders, after the assassination of several key figures of the Iranian regime and with the newly appointed Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, still out of the public eye.
By Wednesday evening, the Iranian regime had categorically rejected Trump's 15-point plan to end the war, presented to Tehran through Pakistani generals, calling it "extremely unreasonable." Instead, Iran presented its own proposal, strikingly different.
Who Will Deal with a More Furious Iran?
While Trump insisted that progress was being made in negotiations, thousands of American soldiers were sent to the Middle East, and there is a strong fear among Gulf states that they are pawns in the US and Israel's Middle East game, analysts say.
Moreover, the prospect of Trump ending the war, with the current Iranian regime less than 160 kilometers from some Gulf capitals - possibly angrier and more vengeful than before and with a keen awareness of the damage its missiles and drones can inflict on the region's multibillion-dollar infrastructure and industry - is widely seen as an existential threat to the petrostates' economic ambitions.
There is also no clear solution yet on how to end Iran's highly successful control over the Strait of Hormuz, through which most of the Gulf's oil and gas exports to the world pass, and which looms as a sword of Damocles over the region.
On the other hand, a prolonged war led by the US also risks depleting the economies of the Gulf and endangering vital energy and water infrastructure, which would come at a high civilian cost.
Trump Doesn't Care about the Gulf Countries
In these circumstances, Bader al-Saif, a professor at the University of Kuwait and a member of Chatham House, believes it is crucial for the Gulf states to be at the table for any peace talks, if they were to occur.
However, these countries should initiate their own separate negotiations with Iran to ensure their long-term interests are protected. "They should not rely solely on the US to conduct the negotiations. They should go and make a deal with Iran for themselves. This was not our war, and if we can protect ourselves from being further affected, we should do it to safeguard our own national interests," al-Saif said.
Alex Vatanka, a Senior Fellow at the Middle East Institute, emphasized that beyond securing the commercial flow through the Hormuz Strait and dismantling the nuclear program, there is no reason to expect Trump to prioritize the needs of the Gulf countries in negotiations with Iran, despite their longstanding security agreement.
"Gulf states could once again easily be sidelined by Trump; he doesn't care that much about them beyond personal business opportunities," Vatanka said.
While noting that huge diplomatic efforts would be needed to rebuild trust between Iran and the Gulf states, Vatanka said he expects these countries to ultimately carve their own path to Tehran, as they did before the war broke out.
"Whatever happens, they will still be frontline countries. Iran is right beyond the waterway, and they are not a fortress. So once the shooting stops, the Gulf states will have to decide: are there ways they can push this regime in a different direction?" Vatanka added.
T.D.