The disappearance of the American who ejected from the crashed F-15E Strike Eagle in Iran raises concerns that Iran could use this incident to gain influence over the United States.
The rescue operation of the American officer entered its second day on Saturday. Not only the US forces are diligently searching for him, but also the Iranian regime.
One of the crew members of an F-15E Strike Eagle aircraft, which was shot down in Iran on Friday, has been rescued. The situation of the second one is still unclear. F-15 aircraft have a crew of two people - a pilot and a weapons systems officer.
As evidence of Tehran's desire to find him, a presenter at a local branch of the Iranian state radio station read a statement on Friday on television urging residents to capture him and hand him over alive to the security forces in exchange for a reward.
The possibility of Iran capturing an American military personnel raises the risk of a repeat of the 1979 Iran hostage crisis, a traumatic event in American history that laid the foundation for nearly five decades of hostile relations between the US and Iran, writes The New York Times.
Trump mocked Carter, now he's almost in his place
The crisis of '79, when Iranian protesters stormed the US embassy in Tehran and held 52 Americans hostage for 444 days, set a pattern for Iran, which it would perfect in the following decades as a way to attract global attention, inflict suffering on its adversaries, and obtain concessions.
Since 1979, the Iranian government has repeatedly used hostage-taking as a tactic against its adversaries. It detained Americans, Europeans, and other foreign citizens, sometimes imprisoning them for years before releasing them, often in exchange for money or the release of its own citizens imprisoned abroad. Tehran has also used hostages as propaganda tools and to establish a foothold.
The 1979 crisis came to define the last year of Jimmy Carter's presidency and served for many as a symbol of his failures.
Ironically, Trump has criticized on several occasions how Carter handled the hostage crisis, calling it "pathetic". In 1980, he told a journalist: "The fact that this country sits back and allows a country like Iran to hold our people hostage, is in my opinion, horrible and I don't think they would do it with other countries."
What will Tehran do if it gets hold of the American military personnel
Hamidreza Azizi, an expert on Iranian security issues at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs, a research organization, stated that Iran could adopt one of two tactics if it manages to capture the American officer:
- If the capture remains secret, the Iranians could privately contact the United States and strike a behind-the-scenes deal, seeking concessions in exchange for the officer's secret release.
- Iran could present him in front of the cameras for propaganda purposes.
Unfortunately for the US, the second option is the most likely strategy. "They really want to present this image of victory and also to embarrass Trump," Azizi said.
Iran mocks Trump
Even if the pilot is safely recovered by American forces, this episode highlights the risks of conducting missions in hostile territory against an adversary capable of retaliation. Rescue operations are inevitably dangerous, as other members of the American services are put at risk, notes the American newspaper.
An American Black Hawk helicopter involved in the search was hit by ground fire on Friday, but managed to escape safely. And a second combat aircraft, an A-10 Warthog, crashed in the Persian Gulf region, according to two American officials who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss operational matters. The pilot in that plane was rescued.
Iranian officials and pro-government commentators have so far provided few details about the missing American officer and what his fate might be if he falls into Iranian hands.
Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, the President of Iran's Parliament and a powerful member of the Iranian political establishment, taunted the United States on Friday with an ironic message posted on X.
"After defeating Iran 37 times in a row, this brilliant war without strategy they started has now been downgraded from 'regime change' to 'Hey! Can someone find our pilots? Please?'", Ghalibaf wrote. "Wow. What incredible progress. Absolute geniuses."
Meanwhile, the race against time continues to find the American officer.