The Ukrainian strikes deep into Russia are starting to have visible effects – not only in the economy, but also in the pro-war public discourse. Russian military bloggers increasingly warn that Moscow could end up in a „shameful peace” due to the losses and growing pressure, according to an analysis by Kyiv Post, citing the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
According to ISW, an influential Russian military commentator acknowledges that the economic advantage of the West, which supports Ukraine, is „orders of magnitude” greater than that of Russia and is beginning to be seen directly on the battlefield.
The impact is especially felt through massive drone attacks, involving hundreds of unmanned aircraft.
The same blogger warns that these strikes will become even more intense and claims that Russia does not have the industrial capacity to produce enough interceptor missiles to counter them.
He goes as far as to say that Russia is „doomed to defeat” if it does not „urgently solve the problem of ending the war.”
### „Shameful peace” or decisive offensive
In this logic, Moscow would have only two options, according to the commentator: to accept a „shameful peace” or to attempt a major strategic offensive.
However, he emphasizes that the Kremlin is not politically prepared for such a risky gamble.
The assessments come in the context of a series of Ukrainian attacks on Russian energy infrastructure in the Baltic region, which are already having economic effects.
### Export of oil affected in the Baltic Sea
The Ministry of Defense in Kyiv announced that the attacks launched on March 24 on the ports in the Baltic Sea have blocked a significant part of the oil exports.
This includes the Primorsk terminal, the largest oil export point in the region.
In recent days, Ukrainian forces have targeted several strategic objectives: oil tanks at the Kinef refinery in Kirishi, the Ust-Luga terminal of Novatek company, and the Transneft infrastructure in Primorsk.
A military icebreaker of the Project 23550 class at the Vyborg shipyard was also hit.
### Problems on the front and disrupted plans
In addition to the economic impact, Russian bloggers are starting to acknowledge broader military difficulties.
One of them claims that Russian forces have limited chances to change the situation in the coming months and that Ukrainian counterattacks have disrupted Moscow’s offensive plans for 2026.
Similar signals are also coming from official sources. The Vice President of the Defense Committee in the State Duma, Alexei Jhuravliov, admitted that the battle for Kostiantynivka was not decisive and suggested a change of objectives towards Sloviansk and Kramatorsk.
### Ukraine „surpasses” Russia in technological adaptation
Pro-war commentators also recognize a sensitive issue: Ukraine is beginning to have a technological advantage.
They talk about the efficiency of the medium-range air interdiction campaign, which hits Russian logistics dozens of kilometers behind the front lines.
One blogger explicitly states that Ukrainian forces are „surpassing” Russia in adapting to drone warfare and criticizes the slow reaction of the Russian army.
He warns that Russia cannot make progress or even maintain current positions relying solely on human resources.
### Deeper attacks in the defense industry
Ukrainian strikes do not stop at energy infrastructure.
Drones have targeted the Atlant Aero plant in Taganrog, where attack and reconnaissance drones are produced, as well as facilities of the Beriev plant, which serves the Tu-95 strategic bombers and A-50 early warning aircraft.
Local authorities have confirmed damages, including in the Samara region, where an industrial facility in Tolyatti was hit, and geolocated images show a fire at the KuibyshevAzot chemical plant.
### Putin asks for money for war but does not want peace
In parallel, Russian leader Vladimir Putin has asked oligarchs to provide additional funding for the war.
According to The Bell publication, in a closed-door meeting, he asked them to „throw money” into the conflict and conveyed that there is no intention to end it.
„They said we will fight… We will go to the borders of Donbas,” sources close to the discussions declared.
At least two oligarchs have promised significant contributions, including billionaire Suleiman Kerimov, who reportedly offered 100 billion rubles.
### USA: Putin wants the war to continue
Former US Ambassador to Ukraine, John E. Herbst, clearly states that Moscow is not seeking peace.
„Putin wants the fighting to continue,” he said.
According to Herbst, Russia has rejected several peace proposals accepted by Ukraine and Volodymyr Zelensky and is trying to create tensions between Kyiv and Washington.
He argues that the Kremlin is attempting to stop American support for Ukraine, while publicly flattering US President Donald Trump.
„Putin’s war is not going very well… and he has paid a high price for the large-scale invasion,” Herbst said.
G.P.